UK Economics Chart Pack More green shoots The forward-looking economic indicators have continued to improve over the past month and are still pointing to a much smaller contraction in GDP in Q2 than in Q1. But we have yet to see anything that... 1st June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack More than just an Easter boost (May 09) The likely sharp fall in overall consumer spending in Q1 probably marks the low-point during this downturn. After all, the consumer sector has shared in the tentative signs of improvement, or at least... 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The worst is over The past month has brought further signs of improvement in most of the forward-looking economic indicators. It therefore seems increasingly likely that the worst of the recession was seen in Q1. For... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack High street resilient, but weakness persists elsewhere (Apr 09) Retail sales have lost some of their shine, but are still performing rather better than might be expected given the economic backdrop. However, spending off the high street is certainly still... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Policy moves into uncharted territory The initial impact of the Monetary Policy Committee’s first foray into quantitative easing has been fairly positive, with bond yields falling sharply. (See Chart.) But it is too early to tell whether... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack New year rebound fading fast (Mar 09) The outlook for consumer spending is not unambiguously gloomy – we think that the amount of income for discretionary (i.e. fun) spending has recently been growing at double digit annual rates. The key... 26th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy still deep in recession The news over the last month has done nothing to change expectations of a sharp contraction in the economy this year. Admittedly, the breakdown of GDP in Q4 showed that destocking playing a large part... 3rd March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack New year resilience unlikely to last (Feb 09) The resilience of consumers never ceases to surprise, with the strong spending seen at the end of December continuing into the start of January. This might suggest that consumers feel confident enough... 20th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recession to be as severe as the early 1980s The preliminary estimate of GDP in the final quarter of last year confirmed that the economy has plunged into recession. The 1.5% quarterly drop in output in Q4 means that the economy contracted by... 4th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Christmas not as bad as feared (Jan 09) Consumers eventually came out in force, meaning that buoyant sales around Christmas and the start of the clearance sales prevented the period from being a complete wash-out for retailers. However... 23rd January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy to contract by 2.5% this year The data over the last month have made it look much more likely that GDP will fall very sharply this year. The National Accounts revealed that GDP fell in Q3 by 0.6%, worse than the previous estimate... 5th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Price cuts fail to get consumers spending (Dec 08) There might yet be a last minute rush to the shops. For now, though, it looks likely to be an awful Christmas on the high street. Admittedly, the cuts in taxes and interest rates modestly improve the... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Policymakers step up a gear The last month has seen UK policymakers take more aggressive action to stop the recession from turning into a depression. November’s 150bps cut in interest rates to 3% left them at a 57-year low. And... 2nd December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Retailers resort to price cuts as spending slows (Nov 08) It is shaping up to be a pretty awful Christmas for retailers. Admittedly, the recent interest rate cuts and falls in petrol and food prices will provide some relief for household incomes. What’s more... 20th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Worse than the early 1990s The 0.5% plunge in GDP in Q3 marked the start of the UK’s first recession in 17 years. And worse is to come. It is likely that the Government’s recapitalisation of the banks will not stop lending... 3rd November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recession underway (Oct 08) The official measure of retail sales is at least now moving in the same direction as the gloomy survey evidence. All of the main indicators therefore now show a sharp slowdown in high street demand... 23rd October 2008 · 1 min read
