UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery still struggling After the disappointing second quarter, there are few signs that the recovery has since got back on track. 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling real pay taking its toll The continued squeeze on real pay suggests that consumer spending will keep falling for some time. Last week we revised down our forecast for GDP growth this year from 1.5% to 1% and now expect... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers bowing under the pressure A raft of negative news from the high street suggests that falling real incomes are taking their toll on the consumer sector. 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumer sector back in recession Consumer spending has fallen for two quarters in a row, meaning that the household sector is now technically back in recession. Although high street spending picked up in April, that appears to have... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Net trade boost unlikely to last The long-awaited re-balancing of the economy seems to be underway, with net trade making a huge positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth in Q1. However, the 1.3% contraction in domestic demand... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Temporarily better Consumer spending received a boost in April from the favourable combination of the good weather, the later fall of Easter and the Royal Wedding. However, this support is only temporary and we suspect... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery grinds to a halt The news that GDP rose by only 0.5% in Q1 means that underlying activity has been broadly flat over the past six months. With the full effect of the fiscal tightening yet to be felt, we expect the... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Easter muddles the picture Just as the snow-related distortions have faded, Easter timing effects have come along to muddle the picture instead. But as far as we can tell, the underlying trend in consumer spending is flat at... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Still few signs of rebalancing The UK economy is still making little progress on rebalancing away from consumers to other parts of the economy. Until net trade starts to improve, a strong and sustainable recovery seems unlikely. 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending slowdown seems underway The weather-related volatility of the past few months has made reading the underlying trend of consumer spending difficult. However, it is increasingly looking like consumers have become much more... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Two speed recovery continues A two speed recovery appears to be emerging, with a buoyant manufacturing sector contrasting with a struggling housing and consumer sector. 3rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Post snow bounce-back unlikely to last Snow effects are obviously distorting the picture at the moment. But as far as we can tell, the underlying recovery may be struggling a bit. 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Snow effects aside, the recovery looks lacklustre The rebound in the CIPS/Markit surveys in January provides some reassurance that the 0.5% drop in GDP in the final quarter of last year was primarily due to the effects of the snow. However, as far as... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers battle against rising VAT and inflation Abstracting from the effects of the snow, some sort of sluggish recovery in consumer spending still seems to be underway. However, the outlook for this year as a whole remains bleak. 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery starts new year with strong momentum The economy has entered 2011 on a relatively strong note. However, the recovery looks set to lose momentum as 2011 progresses and the fiscal squeeze hits. We expect growth of just 1.5% both this year... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A reasonable end to the year in prospect Consumer spending could end the year on a relatively strong note. But, we still expect the spending recovery to fade pretty quickly at the start of next year. 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
