UK Economic Outlook Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls... 10th December 2024 · 18 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Our senior economists hosted an online briefing to discuss the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024.
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
UK Economic Outlook Government’s fiscal plans unlikely to derail economy We are not expecting the planned fiscal policies of the government to derail the economy – we expect GDP to grow by 1.0% this year and by a decent 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026. Instead, the main... 1st October 2024 · 18 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Next government to benefit from economic tailwind The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth... 25th June 2024 · 18 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Inflation: From too high to too low After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI... 25th March 2024 · 17 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Softer landing, but the runway is longer With higher interest rates taking longer to percolate through the economy, we now think the recession will be shallower and GDP growth will stay weak throughout all of 2024. It’s a softer landing for... 5th December 2023 · 19 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A protracted peak A slower fall in core inflation than in the US or the euro-zone will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold at the probable peak of 5.50% for longer than the US Fed or the ECB. But... 18th September 2023 · 18 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Stagflation nation As the UK’s recent problem of higher inflation and slower economic growth than elsewhere is largely due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and Brexit, we think the UK will probably look like the... 19th June 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook High inflation and interest rates to hit economy hard The drag on the economy from CPI inflation being stuck at 10% for a year and interest rates rising to 5.00% will be enough to trigger a recession that involves real GDP declining by around 2.0% from... 20th October 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Soaring inflation to trigger a recession A rise in CPI inflation from the 40-year high of 9.1% in May to a peak of 12% or higher in October will reduce real incomes by enough to mean that a recession now seems inevitable. Our forecast that... 18th July 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Rates to rise to 3.00% to rein in price expectations Even though a further surge in CPI inflation to a 40-year high of 10% in October will take the economy to the brink of recession, we think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 0.75% now... 26th April 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More inflation, more interest rate hikes Although the hit to households’ real incomes from a bigger surge in CPI inflation than most expect (to a peak of almost 7% in April) explains why we think GDP growth will be slower this year than the... 17th January 2022 · 27 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
