UK Data Response Retail Sales & Inflation Expectations (Nov.) November’s official UK retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending relatively freely. But the combination of tax rises, high inflation and public sector job losses make for a... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The recovery in the UK labour market appears to be flagging even before the public sector job cuts have really started. We still expect unemployment to rise fairly sharply over the next couple of... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s consumer prices figures will have done little to ease concerns over the continued stubbornness of price pressures in the UK economy. 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Nov.) November’s producer prices figures suggested that cost pressures in the industrial sector are still pretty strong. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Oct.) October’s UK trade figures add to other recent evidence suggesting that the external sector is finally playing a role in the economic recovery. That said, given the boost from the lower pound, we... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Ind. Production (Oct.) & BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.) The latest official manufacturing data echoed the recent industrial surveys in suggesting that the recovery in the industrial sector is picking up pace again. But conditions on the high street are... 7th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Nov.) November’s CIPS/Markit report on services was perhaps a bit disappointing after the recent run of improved news on the economy. The big picture is that the economic recovery is still fragile and... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s UK CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial recovery is back on track. 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Housing downturn another blow for consumer spending The recent renewed falls in house prices have revived the long-standing debate about the effect of the housing market on consumer spending. We stand by our long-held view that there is a strong link... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) The sixth consecutive monthly fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase underlines the message that the mortgage market is severely depressed. We expect it to remain that way throughout 2011. 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.) November’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that demand on the high street is rising at a rapid rate, perhaps reflecting early signs of a boost to spending ahead of the VAT rise on 1st January... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q3) The second estimate of UK GDP confirmed that the economic recovery was still going strong in the third quarter. But we still have deep concerns about its sustainability in the face of the immense... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Oct.) The latest UK retail sales figures suggested that the consumer spending recovery, while a bit lacklustre, hasn’t petered out yet. But another set of poor public finances cast further doubt on whether... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK MPC Minutes & Labour Market Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting and the latest labour market figures tell us little new about the monetary policy debate. The MPC remains in wait and see mode until clearer signals on the... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read