UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) & Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jan.) Yesterday’s disappointing GDP figures re-ignited concerns about a return to so-called “stagflation” – the toxic combination of high inflation and high unemployment/weak economic growth that plagued... 26th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary GDP (Q4) & Public Finances (Dec.) Although heavily affected by the weather, the UK’s shockingly bad Q4 GDP figures - showing a 0.5% quarterly contraction - raise serious concerns over whether the economy is in a strong enough position... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s official UK retail sales figures provided further confirmation of the adverse effects of the snow on high street spending last month. Obviously this is just a temporary factor and spending... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) On the face of it, the latest UK labour market figures provide some tentative signs that the jobs recovery is back on track. But we continue to think that unemployment will rise sharply over the next... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s worse than expected UK consumer prices figures will do nothing to ease concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee is neglecting its inflation-targeting remit. But we continue to think that... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s producer prices figures revealed that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to intensify. But this should not prevent consumer price inflation from falling back in the... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s industrial production figures confirmed that the manufacturing recovery remains in rude health. But the sector’s strong recovery is unlikely to prevent the overall economic recovery from... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Nov.) November’s UK trade figures are not as bad as the widening in the headline deficits suggests. However, it is clear that net trade is giving at best a limited boost to the wider economic recovery. 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) & BCC Survey (Q4) Today’s UK data provided further evidence that economic growth slowed towards the end of last year, although the snow is of course partly to blame. 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) According to the Halifax, house prices recorded a modest decline in the year to December 2010. With the pressures on house prices still building, we anticipate that prices will fall considerably... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS Report on Services (Dec.) & Credit Conditions (Q4) December’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that the economy ended 2010 on a much weaker note than the recent upbeat industrial data had indicated. What’s more, the Bank of England’s latest... 6th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manuf. (Dec.) & H'hold borrowing (Nov.) Today’s UK data suggested that the economy ended 2010 on a relatively firm note. However, 2011 is set to be a challenging year and we continue to think that the recovery will struggle to maintain the... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Accounts, Bal. of Payments (Q3) & MPC mins. (Dec.) The raft of UK data released today did little to improve the prospects for the economy next year, highlighting a number of reasons to be concerned over the sustainability of the recovery. 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s UK public finances figures confirmed that the recent stronger performance of the economy has so far had little positive impact on the dire fiscal position. 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Inflation Expectations (Nov.) November’s official UK retail sales figures suggested that consumers are still spending relatively freely. But the combination of tax rises, high inflation and public sector job losses make for a... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read