UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manuf. (Feb.) & H'hold borrowing (Jan.) Today’s data further highlight the growing divergence between the strength of the recoveries in the industrial and consumer sectors of the UK economy. 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) & Mortgage Lending (Jan.) This morning’s data paints a picture of a housing market that is struggling for direction. But while the pace of any further falls is hard to judge, with mortgage demand so low, February’s modest rise... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q4) The slight downward revision to UK GDP in Q4 means that, snow effects aside, activity is now estimated to have contracted a touch at the end of last year. Although the economy bounced back in January... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CBI Services (Q1) & Dist. Trades (Feb.) Surveys The CBI’s latest surveys suggest that any bounce-back in overall household spending following December’s heavy snow has been short-lived. We continue to think that household spending may fall by... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) The hawkish tone of February’s UK MPC minutes suggests that the chances of a near-term interest rate rise are higher than previously thought. Indeed, we would now put the chances of a May hike at... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finance figures provided reassurance that the Government is on track to meet this year’s borrowing forecasts. However, we continue to think that the slowing recovery will mean that... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s official UK retail sales figures showed that, like the rest of the economy, high street spending bounced back at the start of the year after December’s snowrelated dip. However, the... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report left the outlook for UK interest rates very finely balanced. But we remain firmly of the view that the markets are currently significantly overstating the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Dec./Jan.) The latest UK labour market figures provide further evidence that the jobs recovery has gone into reverse. We continue to think that over the next few years unemployment will climb from its current... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s UK consumer prices figures came as something of a relief given the potential for another nasty surprise this month. Although inflation could yet rise further over the next few months, we... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Jan.) Today’s producer prices figures will add to concerns about the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, we still expect inflation to fall sharply next year. 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s official industrial production figures suggested that, like the rest of the economy, the manufacturing recovery was blown off course by the bad weather at the end of the year. 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Dec.) The deterioration in the UK’s trade position in December primarily reflects temporary factors such as the snow. However, the underlying trend is still pretty dismal. 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The bounce in house prices in January is unlikely to signal the start of a rising trend. With the economic fundamentals of the housing market still very weak, the most likely scenario is for house... 4th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS Report on Services (Jan.) The bounce-back in the UK CIPS/Markit report on services in January confirms that the drop in activity in December was partly a temporary result of the snow. Nonetheless, the underlying trend still... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manuf. (Jan.) & H'hold borrowing (Dec.) January’s UK CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial recovery is still going from strength to strength. But other news on the housing market and money growth gave a more... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read