UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s drop in industrial production is not quite as bad as it first looks. Nonetheless, taken with the drop in March’s CIPS manufacturing survey, it may be that the industrial recovery is past... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) Last month’s marginal increase in house prices is unlikely to set a trend for the rest of this year. With lenders further restricting the availability of credit and the fiscal squeeze intensifying... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar.) & BCC Survey (Q1) The latest news on the services sector suggested that the underlying recovery in the biggest part of the economy has picked up steam. But we would be surprised if the sharp improvement is sustained... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Mar.) March’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing was not disastrous but perhaps poured some cold water on hopes that the industrial sector will entirely avoid the emerging slowdown in the domestic and... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions (Q1), Cons. Conf. (Mar.), Pay settlements (Feb.) The Bank of England’s latest survey suggested that credit conditions remain pretty tight, suggesting that a significant pick-up in bank lending still looks unlikely any time soon. Meanwhile, there was... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Accounts, Bal. of Pay. (Q4) & H'hold borr. (Feb.) Today’s UK data suggested that there is still little evidence of a significant rebalancing in the economy. Indeed, we remain sceptical that the economy is now firmly back on the path to strong health... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Feb 11) February’s official retail sales figures added to the increasing amount of evidence suggesting that consumer spending growth has slowed sharply since the initial bounce in spending at the start of the... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar 11) The minutes of March’s MPC meeting show that most Committee members are still reluctant to start tightening monetary policy when there is so much uncertainty about the growth and inflation outlook. A... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s public finances and consumer prices numbers presented a distinctly unfavourable backdrop to tomorrow’s Budget. 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Labour Market Data (Jan./Feb.) The latest labour market figures gave slightly mixed messages. But the fundamental picture is that both activity and price pressures in the labour market remain weak. 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s producer prices figures revealed another sharp rise in firms’ costs. But they also provided a bit of reassurance that consumer price inflation should still fall sharply next year. 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s UK industrial production figures show that the manufacturing recovery has retained a lot of momentum. But given the sector’s relative small share of GDP, it will still make only a modest... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Jan.) Temporary factors drove at least part of the improvement in the UK’s trade position in January. As with the rest of the economy, reading the underlying trend at the moment is fairly tricky... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response RICS Housing Survey & BRC Retail Sales (Feb.) House prices fell a little further in February and activity levels remained static at depressed levels. Consistent with that, the BRC survey brought further evidence that the squeeze on household... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) The latest decline in the Halifax house price index underlines that the pressures weighing on prices are still very much with us. If, as we expect, these pressures build this year – for example, if... 4th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Feb.) February’s UK CIPS/Markit report on services showed that growth in the biggest part of the economy has slowed since January’s post-snow rebound. However, it remains hard to gauge how well the... 3rd March 2011 · 1 min read