UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The good news on inflation did not last for long, with April’s sharp rise more than reversing March’s drop. However, the increase was driven by temporary factors and we still expect inflation to fall... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production figures poured more cold water on hopes that the sector will be able to keep up its recent support for the overall economic recovery. 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report left the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. But we remain of the view that the markets are overstating the likely level of rates over the next couple of... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) The widening in the UK trade deficit in March was all but inevitable after such a sharp narrowing in the previous two months and the big picture is that the trade position is still looking a lot... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) After stabilising in the past few months, the main house price indices again appear to be on their way back down. Given the weak activity data and the overvaluation in the market, this should come as... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Apr.) April’s producer prices figures showed that cost pressures have continued to build in the manufacturing sector, but more recent developments suggest that these pressures may turn out to be short-lived... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Apr.) The drop in April’s CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the falls already seen in the sister manufacturing and construction surveys and provided further evidence that the economic recovery is... 5th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Household Borrowing (Mar.) & CIPS Construction (Apr.) Today’s data suggested that the housing market remains in a fragile state, while the construction sector seems to have started the second quarter on a weak footing. 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Apr.) April’s CIPS manufacturing survey provided further evidence to suggest that the best days of the industrial recovery are behind us. 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary GDP (Q1) Q1’s GDP figures suggest that the recovery has completely ground to a halt since last autumn, with underlying activity pretty much stagnant for the past six months. The chances of an interest rate... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. and Q2) April’s CBI industrial trends survey provided a bit more evidence to suggest that the manufacturing recovery is no longer gaining pace. 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public finances (Mar.) March’s retail sales figures were slightly more upbeat than the other recent news on consumer spending. The public finance figures were a bit better than expected too. But it is hard to be optimistic... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) The dovish tone of the minutes of April’s MPC meeting has further reduced the chances of a rise in interest rates at next month’s meeting. If the recent weaker tone of the economic data is sustained... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) The labour market recovery is looking a bit healthier, with the private sector apparently managing to offset job cuts in the public sector. But the continued falls in real pay do not bode well for... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.), BRC Sales (Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) March’s drop in both inflation and consumer spending clearly relieves some of the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates soon. Although inflation is probably set to... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s producer prices figures show that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to build. But data on the construction sector suggest that the underlying strength of the recovery... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read