UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (May) The latest mortgage lending figures confirm that housing market activity remains very weak. That’s unlikely to change while the squeeze on real pay continues. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) There were no major changes to the overall growth picture in Q1’s National Accounts. But the economy does not appear to have been making as much progress towards rebalancing as previously appeared to... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) The minutes of June’s MPC meeting suggested that the Committee is moving even further away from a near-term interest rate rise – with more members starting to contemplate giving the economy extra... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) & CBI Ind. Trends (Jun.) May’s public finances figures brought the clearest signs yet that the weakness of the economy is having an adverse effect on the public finances. 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) June’s UK CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that the recovery in the biggest part of the economy has regained a little momentum. But growth in the sector, and indeed the economy as a whole... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Apr./May) The labour market figures are still giving a bit of a mixed picture about how well the jobs recovery is faring. But the squeeze on real pay is very clear – reinforcing our concerns about the outlook... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (May) May’s unchanged CPI inflation rate represents just a temporary pause in an upward trend which could take inflation to 5.5% or above. But medium-term influences still point to sharp falls in inflation... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) & Producer Prices (May) April’s industrial production figures were heavily distorted by one-off factors and were therefore not nearly as bad as they look. Still, with the trend in activity slowing and cost pressures still... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) April’s UK trade figures suggested that the big boost to GDP growth in the first quarter from the external sector is unlikely to be repeated this quarter. 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (May) The latest small rise in the Halifax house price index does little to change the bigger picture that prices on this measure are trending lower. Given the struggling economic recovery and the fact that... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (May) May’s CIPS/Markit report on services was thankfully not as bad as the manufacturing survey released earlier this week. Nonetheless, the slight deterioration provided further evidence that the economic... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manuf. (May) & H'hold Borrowing (Apr.) Today’s manufacturing and household borrowing data provided further evidence that the UK’s economic recovery is now struggling across the board. 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) December’s producer prices figures revealed that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to intensify. But this should not prevent consumer price inflation from falling back in the... 27th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q1) The lack of any upward revision to UK GDP in Q1 leaves the economic recovery still looking disappointingly weak. Of course, we are now over halfway through the second quarter. But while high street... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finance figures have got the new fiscal year off to a bad start. We continue to doubt that the Government will be able to get borrowing down to meet the fiscal projections this year or... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April’s official measure of retail sales supported other evidence showing that the high street enjoyed a bit of a bounce last month. However, it looks like this strength primarily reflected the... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read