UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s consumer prices figures brought further hope that the peak in inflation is close. Lingering inflation worries amongst some MPC members should not stand in the way of more quantitative easing... 14th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s producer prices figures provided the strongest indication yet that cost pressures in the industrial sector have peaked. 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) We think consumer price inflation probably rebounded a touch last month, but still expect it to drop below 5% by the end of the year. As it does, policymakers are likely to start loosening controls on... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) With all of the house price data relating to August released so far reporting month-on-month falls, the evidence of renewed weakness in prices is building. Admittedly, it is too early to draw firm... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Aug.) August’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that growth in the largest sector of the economy has slowed sharply – and has perhaps even turned negative. We continue to expect virtually no GDP... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Aug.) August’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing brought further evidence that the slowdown in the global economic recovery is starting to hit the UK manufacturing sector hard. 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) August’s drop in average house prices may be little more than noise in the broadly flat trend seen in recent months. But with the recovery faltering and consumer confidence weakening it could also... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2) House prices are likely to end 2011 in line with, or marginally lower than, last year. That will do little to alleviate the extent to which housing is overvalued. Against this backdrop, and with the... 27th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) House prices are likely to end 2011 in line with, or marginally lower than, last year. That will do little to alleviate the extent to which housing is overvalued. Against this backdrop, and with the... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Ireland’s robust rebound in economic output so far this year does not appear to have meaningfully improved the health of Dublin’s commercial property occupier markets. Although rents may now have... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) & Labour market (Jun./Jul.) August’s MPC minutes and the latest labour market data strongly supported the markets’ (and our own) assumption that interest rates will remain on hold for at least the next couple of years. 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s consumer prices figures confirmed that June’s surprise drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. But the fact that the rise last month was driven by a pick-up in the core rate does not mean that... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) July’s consumer prices figures confirmed that June’s surprise drop in CPI inflation was just a blip. But the fact that the rise last month was driven by a pick-up in the core rate does not mean that... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. (Jun.), Trade (Jun.) & BRC Retail Sales (Jul.) The further falls in the markets earlier this morning were followed by yet more disappointing news on the UK’s economic recovery. The recovery was already struggling, but the recent market mayhem has... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Jul.) The latest batch of producer prices figures showed that cost pressures are finally close to peaking in the industrial sector. 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) The latest rise in house prices in July will be seen by some as a sign that the market has found a new equilibrium. However, increasingly downbeat news regarding the wider economy and the fact that... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read