UK Data Response Balance of Payments & Economic Accounts (Q2) The Balance of Payments and Economic Accounts releases for the second quarter suggested that the economy is a bit better balanced than previously thought. Nonetheless, we doubt that these improvements... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) On the face of it, September’s public finance figures suggested that the chance that the Government will bring borrowing down in line with its fiscal plans has increased. But we doubt that the figures... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures were a bit stronger than we and the consensus had expected, but hardly suggested that a recovery on the high street is now underway. 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) The MPC’s unanimous vote for more QE in October and its growing concerns over the outlook for the economy suggest that further extensions of its bond purchase programme are likely next year. 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Aug.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) The latest news on the labour market confirmed that the downturn in the economy is having an increasingly adverse impact on both employment and wages growth. 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Production (Aug.) & BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) August’s industrial production figures provided yet more evidence that the recent turmoil in financial markets and slowdown in the global economic recovery have taken their toll on the manufacturing... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Sep.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The latest fall in the Halifax house price index seems to echo recent downbeat news on the economy. While low interest rates make judging the timing difficult, the gloomy economic outlook suggests... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & CIPS Report on Services Q2’s national accounts and September’s CIPS report on services brought further bleak news on the UK economy. Not only was the recession back in 2008/09 deeper than previously thought, but the economy... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Sep.) Q2’s national accounts and September’s CIPS report on services brought further bleak news on the UK economy. Not only was the recession back in 2008/09 deeper than previously thought, but the economy... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) & Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The unexpectedly strong rise in mortgage approvals, combined with a marginal rise in the Nationwide house price index, might suggest that the risk of further house price falls is receding. But, in our... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Sep.) & Public finances (Aug.) The minutes of September’s MPC meeting strongly suggested that QE2 will be launched soon, while August’s public finances threw more doubt on the fiscal plans. 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s retail sales figures provided further evidence that high inflation is killing off any hope of a recovery on the high street. 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) September’s unexpectedly sharp rise in headline CPI inflation from 4.5% to 5.2% came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But the key point is that inflation is very close to a peak and should soon start to... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read