UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Nov.) November’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing added to the growing mass of evidence suggesting that the UK economy is heading back into recession. 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) & Mortgage Lending (Oct.) The Nationwide house price index remains surprisingly resilient in the face of falling confidence and weak mortgage demand. But with the labour market now deteriorating rapidly, the balance of risks... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q3) Economic growth in the third quarter was driven by stockbuilding and government spending, neither of which is the basis for a sustained recovery. Indeed, the more forward-looking indicators suggest... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting supported last week’s dovish Inflation Report in suggesting that a further extension to the quantitative easing (QE) programme is not far off. More QE in February... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finance figures provided the Chancellor with some relatively good news ahead of next week’s Autumn Statement. But the deterioration in the prospects for economic growth (and hence... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The gap between the cost of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is finally closing, but the episode has been another example of how speculative pressures can... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Bank of England Inflation Report clearly paved the way for a significant further extension of the MPC’s asset purchase programme. 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Sep./Oct.) The latest employment figures showed that the labour market is continuing to deteriorate rapidly. We still think that ILO unemployment will rise above the 3 million mark within the next couple of... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Fingers crossed, October’s drop in inflation should mean that we have now passed the peak in inflation. The start of 2012 should see inflation begin to fall back sharply and we think that it will be... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s producer prices figures are likely to mark the start of a major downward trend in input price inflation and also underline the competitive pressures bearing down on manufacturers’ pricing... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Sep.) September’s trade figures suggested that the UK is already suffering the adverse effects of the euro-zone crisis. And the worst is yet to come for exporters. 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Production (Sep.) & BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) September’s industrial production figures were weaker than the estimates contained in the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP. The industrial sector seems to be teetering on the brink of recession. 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) The latest rise in house prices in October adds to the evidence that a lack of properties for sale is supporting prices. However, if the recent signs of a fresh downturn in the labour market are... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Oct.) October’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that the overall economy is likely to contract in the fourth quarter and lent further support to our view that inflation will plummet next year. 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Preliminary Est. (Q3) & CIPS Manuf. (Oct.) The slightly better than expected GDP figures for the third quarter have not altered our view that the UK economy is likely to stagnate at best over the next year or so, with growing risks of another... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) The latest rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices is further confirmation that, for now, subdued demand for housing is being offset by a lack of properties for sale. But we suspect that house... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read