UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) The minutes of February’s MPC meeting were slightly more dovish than last week’s Inflation Report, leaving a further extension of quantitative easing (QE) looking a bit more likely than before. 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finance figures showed that government borrowing remains on track to undershoot the OBR’s forecast for this year, meaning that at next month’s Budget, the Chancellor is likely to... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) On the face of it, January’s official retail sales figures suggest that a recovery in high street spending is gaining momentum. But there are reasons to doubt the strength of the official data. In any... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) On the face of it, February’s Bank of England Inflation Report suggested that the MPC is unlikely to extend its asset purchase programme much further. But we think that inflation will fall further... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Dec./Jan.) The labour market data continue to paint a bit of a mixed picture, but the key point is that unemployment is still rising and is likely to increase much further in response to the sluggish economic... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s drop in inflation took it another step closer to the sub-2% rates that we expect to see by the end of the year. Indeed, this time next year, Mervyn King could be getting his pen out to write... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Jan.) Stronger monthly rises in both input and output prices in January did not prevent further falls in the annual inflation rates. And while February may see another sharp monthly rise in input prices... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Dec.) On the face of it, December’s industrial production and trade figures added to the recent run of stronger data on the UK economy. But a closer look at the numbers suggests that the improvement is... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jan.) The improvement in January’s CIPS/Markit report on services provided further evidence that the economic recovery is getting back on track after Q4’s contraction in GDP. 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jan.) January’s CIPS report on manufacturing added to evidence that the industrial recovery got back on track at the start of this year. Nonetheless, the survey also brought signs that the pick-up in output... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) It is still too early to tell whether the latest fall in the Nationwide house price index is confirmation of a renewed downward trend. However, given that the economy is already contracting... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) With the economy now contracting again and further job losses to come, it was perhaps not surprising that the recovery in mortgage approvals seems to have run out of steam. 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Provisional GDP (Q4) & MPC Minutes (Jan.) Q4’s UK GDP figures confirmed fears that the economy is already contracting again. We won’t know for sure whether the economy is actually back in recession until we get Q1’s figures. But our bet is... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s public finance figures showed that government borrowing is still coming in comfortably below last year’s totals. But with tomorrow’s GDP figures possibly set to show that the economy is... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Although December’s official retail sales figures confirmed that consumers flocked to the high street in the run-up to Christmas, we still think that consumers will find it hard to keep increasing... 20th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) On balance, there was more to worry about than to cheer in the latest labour market data. While there were perhaps some signs that the deterioration in the labour market is beginning to ease, we... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read