UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Mar.) The improvement in March’s CIPS report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial recovery still has some momentum. But there were also signs that manufacturing output may struggle to grow in the... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Approvals, M4, Credit Conditions & Productivity The overall message from today’s data was that weak bank lending is likely to remain a significant constraint on the economic recovery. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) The Nationwide house price index recorded its largest drop in two years in March, suggesting that our forecast of a 5% drop during 2012 remains on track. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The downward revision to GDP in Q4 is not too worrying given that the economic news has improved since then. However, we doubt that the recent pick-up in the recovery will last. 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s retail sales figures suggested that the recent recovery on the high street is already running out of steam. 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Feb.) & MPC minutes (Mar.) February’s public finance figures got Budget Day off to a bad start for the Chancellor, while the minutes of March’s MPC meeting showed that the door to more quantitative easing is still ajar. 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The recent rise in oil prices did not stop inflation from taking another step down in February. Admittedly, progress has slowed a bit and inflation could even rise in March. But we still expect it to... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jan./Feb.) Today’s labour market figures painted a pretty weak picture, with unemployment rising further and pay growth weakening sharply. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) Although the UK trade deficit widened in January, the big picture is that the external sector is still holding up quite well given the euro-zone debt crisis. But with the euro-zone economy sliding... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Ind. Production (Jan.) & Producer Prices (Feb.) Today’s disappointing industrial figures provided further evidence to suggest that the manufacturing recovery may already be starting to lose steam. 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) On its own, the latest dip in house prices is nothing to be too concerned about. But with mortgage interest rates edging up again and unemployment still rising, the downward trend in prices is likely... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Feb.) February’s CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the manufacturing survey released last week in suggesting that the recent pick-up in economic activity has already started to fade. 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Feb.) February’s CIPS report on manufacturing tentatively suggested that the industrial recovery might be starting to falter. Nonetheless, the industrial sector will probably still support overall GDP... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) Following falls in December and January, the modest rise in the Nationwide house price index in February is symptomatic of a market that is still struggling for direction. Given that prices are still... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Mortgage approvals are being driven higher by the looming end of the first-time buyer stamp duty holiday and are likely to fall back sharply come April. Thereafter, rising unemployment and falling... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy finished 2011 on a weak footing. Admittedly, the drop reflected a temporary dip in the pace of stockbuilding by firms. There are signs too that... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read