UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) Results from the latest BRC survey accord with other evidence that the recent strength of high street spending is fading. 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) April’s slump in the Halifax house price index must be taken with a large pinch of salt. The underlying trend in house prices is soft, and will almost certainly soften further. But, for now, it is... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Apr.) April’s CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the other surveys released this week in suggesting that the second quarter has got off to a soft start. 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) The underlying trend in house prices has softened notably in the past five months. That seems consistent with reports that mortgage credit conditions are tightening and that the economy is now back in... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) The post-stamp duty holiday downturn in mortgage approvals for new house purchase may have come to an end in March. But we are doubtful that mortgage lending will now mount a sustained recovery. 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Apr.) The deterioration in April’s CIPS report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial sector has started the second quarter on a weak footing. The rebalancing of the economy towards production and... 1st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Provisional GDP (Q1) Just two and a half years after it pulled out of the last one, the UK is already back in a recession. We still think that GDP will contract by 0.5% this year as a whole. 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Mar.) March’s public finance figures suggested that the trend in the fiscal position has worsened and have given some reason to doubt that the coalition will be able to bring borrowing down in line with the... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s surge in retail sales suggested that consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient and has increased the chances that the overall economy grew in the first quarter. However, we remain... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) & Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) April’s fairly hawkish MPC minutes left it looking more likely that the Committee will pause its quantitative easing (QE) programme once the purchases currently underway are completed next month. But... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The recent downward trend in inflation came to a halt in March, but this should be only temporary. We still expect inflation to fall below its target later this year. 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Mar.) & Construction (Feb.) March’s producer prices figures confirmed that rising energy prices have pushed up manufacturers’ costs. Nonetheless, the figures still suggested that consumer price inflation is on course to fall to... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Feb.) The latest disappointing trade figures suggested that net trade’s positive contribution to GDP growth in the final quarter of last year is likely to have been a one-off. 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production figures put something of dent in hopes that a recovery in manufacturing would help to rebalance the economy and help overall GDP to post a decent expansion in the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar.) The improvement in March’s CIPS report on services added to the evidence that the overall economy expanded in Q1 and has therefore avoided a technical recession. But we would not conclude that the... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) The sharp rise in the Halifax house price index in March simply reverses the dip seen since last July. Therefore, it does little to alter the picture of a housing market that remains very weak. 4th April 2012 · 1 min read