UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (May) May’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that activity in the biggest part of the economy is holding up better than in the industrial sector, making the MPC decision at midday today even more... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (May) The small rise in the Halifax house price index for May seems to be in keeping with other evidence that house prices are stuck in a rut, at least at the national level. 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) May’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor supported other evidence suggesting that demand on the high street has recovered following April’s washout. However, there are reasons to think that May’s resilience is... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (May) The sharp deterioration in May’s CIPS report on manufacturing suggests that the downturn in the industrial sector has intensified and has increased the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) Today’s data from the Nationwide show that house prices continue to tread water. In terms of the outlook, however, downside risks, such as further falls in GDP, dominate the upside. We continue to... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) The surprise pick-up in the GfK measure of consumer confidence in May is consistent with the positive findings from the recent CBI Distributive Trades Survey. The Nationwide house price index released... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) The Bank of England measure of mortgage approvals for April does nothing to change the picture of a depressed mortgage market. With escalating tensions in the euro-zone likely to curb further the... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) May’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that demand on the high street has picked up quite strongly in May, perhaps reflecting a rebound from April’s disappointing, weather driven, results... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1) Initial hopes that the drop in GDP in Q1 might be revised away have been quickly disappointed, with the 0.2% fall today revised to a bigger 0.3% drop. The figure could yet be revised back up in the... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The relatively dovish tone of the minutes of May’s MPC meeting suggested that the door to more quantitative easing (QE) is still open. We continue to expect the asset purchases to be resumed soon. 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Public Finances (Apr.) Inflation resumed its downward trend in April. The fall gives the MPC a bit more leeway to undertake further quantitative easing to cushion the UK economy from the turmoil in the euro-zone. 22nd May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report struck a gloomy tone, suggesting that sticky inflation is preventing the MPC from doing anything to offset the deterioration in the growth outlook. However, we... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) Labour market activity is still holding up surprisingly well. But pay growth remains exceptionally weak and we expect the return to recession to weigh on the jobs figures before long. 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) March’s trade figures showed some improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to have dragged on GDP growth in the first quarter overall. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Apr.) & Construction (Mar.) April’s producer price figures indicated that firms are passing on a bigger than expected proportion of past increases in their costs to customers. But with the latest construction figures suggesting... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s official industrial figures confirmed that the underlying trend in production is still down and did not support the view that GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to be revised up. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read