UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) June’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor supports other evidence suggesting that the extended Jubilee holiday boosted demand on the high street in the early part of the month. But that boost seems to have been... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (June) The 1%m/m rise in the Halifax index in June does little to alter the underlying trend which shows that house prices are grinding lower, albeit only slowly. 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jun) June’s CIPS/Markit report on services showed that activity in the biggest part of the economy is weakening, implying that the MPC is almost certain to decide on more quantitative easing (QE) at its... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Housing Equity Withdrawal (Q1) The low level of housing equity withdrawal is an indication of how the subdued housing market may be limiting households’ ability and willingness to spend. 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (May) May’s decline in mortgage approvals was surely related to the fact that lenders are once again reducing the availability of mortgage credit. Against a backdrop of renewed recession in the UK and the... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jun.) The improvement in the CIPS report on manufacturing in June mainly reflected a bounce-back following May’s unexpectedly sharp fall, rather than any fundamental improvement. The big picture is that the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) With the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence unchanged in June, the anticipated boost to consumer spirits from the Jubilee celebrations does not seem to have materialised. 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q1) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The economy is still estimated to have contracted at the start of the year and it is probably still in recession now. We continue to expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% this year and expand only modestly... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) June’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that demand on the high street picked up very strongly in June, probably reflecting the impact of the extended Jubilee holiday. However, we do not... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (May) May’s public finance figures suggested that the double-dip recession is weighing on the public finances. 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) May’s strong rise in the official measure of retail sales largely reflected the fading of the temporary factors that depressed spending in April and so should not be interpreted as a sign that... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Market Data (Apr./May) June’s MPC minutes left an extension of quantitative easing (QE) within the next month or two looking even more likely. We are sticking with our forecast for another £50bn of gilt purchases at the... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in inflation in May was a nice surprise given that we and the consensus had expected it to hold broadly steady. We continue to expect inflation to be back below its target before the... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) April’s trade figures are likely to dampen any positive mood following last night’s policy announcements, with an unexpectedly large widening in the deficit compared to March. 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s industrial production figures suggested that the sector is on course to make yet another negative contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter. 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (May) & Inf. Attitudes Survey (Q2) May’s producer prices figures confirmed that price pressures at the start of the inflation pipeline have begun to fade again, strengthening the case for thinking that CPI inflation is on course to... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read