UK Data Response Producer Prices (Jun.) & Construction Output (Q2) Although July’s producer prices figures disclosed the first rise in input price inflation since February, we doubt that this is a sign of an emerging consumer price inflation threat. Indeed, the... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jun.) The latest UK trade data were pretty dreadful and we doubt that the extra bank holiday in June can take all of the blame. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report contained substantial downward revisions to the growth and inflation forecasts, supporting our view that more policy stimulus is likely once the current... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial figures suggested that the drop in GDP in Q2 is likely to be revised to a slightly smaller fall. But the figures did not change the overall picture of a sector struggling to grow in... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) July’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that sales growth returned to lacklustre rates following the Jubilee celebrations. We might yet see an Olympics boost to spending, but this is... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Personal Insolvencies (Q2) The fall in personal insolvencies in Q2 echoes other evidence suggesting that households are finding it easier to cope with their debts. The easing squeeze on real incomes should help them further... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jul.) July’s CIPS/Markit report on services was thankfully not as bad as the manufacturing survey released earlier this week. But it was not that good either. Even leaving aside temporary factors, the big... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) July’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing demonstrated that the drag from the euro-zone’s debt crisis on the UK’s industrial sector is building. 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Despite the recent falls in inflation and unemployment, consumer sentiment remains very depressed. The Olympic Games might give confidence a near-term boost, but any uplift will probably be short... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey indicated that retail sales growth slowed by more than retailers expected. Although real incomes may be rising modestly soon, we doubt that this will prevent... 30th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Provisional GDP (Q2 12) The UK fell deeper into recession in the second quarter. Although some temporary factors pulled down output, it looks like there was some underlying contraction too. Even allowing for a decent bounce... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jun. 12) June’s public finance figures continued the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position evident since the beginning of the financial year. 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June’s small rise in retail sales volumes suggested that the Jubilee provided only a negligible fillip. Indeed, abstracting from the temporary factors that have influenced spending recently, the... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) & Labour market (May/Jun.) The vote to do more quantitative easing (QE) this month was not unanimous, but the tone of the minutes was nonetheless pretty dovish. We still expect more asset purchases to be announced before the... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) UK inflation fell by more than expected for the second month in a row in June. Inflation is finally within sight of the 2% target and we still expect it to be well below the target by the end of the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (May) May’s industrial and trade figures were not quite as strong as they first appeared. Abstracting from the one-off factors affecting the official figures, it still seems as if an underlying slowdown is... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read