UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 12) August’s fall in inflation suggests that July’s rise was just a temporary blip in a gradual downward trend. Barring a further rise in oil prices, inflation still appears to be on track to reach the... 18th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) The latest labour market figures revealed that employment has continued to grow, despite the underlying stagnation of output. However, we remain concerned that the labour market’s exceptional... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jul.) July’s trade data showed a surprisingly large improvement following June’s awful figures. But stripping out a reversal of some one-off adverse factors in June, and in light of recent survey evidence... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Ind. Production (Jul.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) While July’s industrial figures showed that production bounced back fully from June’s drop, the sector still looks likely to struggle in the coming months. 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Aug. 12) August’s CIPS/Markit report on services (due tomorrow, but accidentally released early) brought some good news. Nevertheless, some bounce-back in activity in August was always possible given the... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) August’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that the Olympics did not provide a hoped for boost to spending. Looking ahead, factors including higher petrol prices are likely to keep a lid... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Aug.) While the activity balances of August’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing recovered from July’s extremely weak levels, they remained consistent with ongoing recession in the industrial sector. 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) Consumer sentiment continues to be very depressed. If the Olympic Games did give confidence a boost in August, this appears to have been drowned out by the gloomy economic news, particularly... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) UK GDP was revised up in the second quarter as expected, but the revision was pretty small in the big picture. The UK’s economic performance still looks dismal. 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug.) August’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that the Olympics did little to boost retail sales. Recent bad news on petrol and energy prices, as well as rising borrowing costs, will dampen the... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.) As expected, June’s unexpectedly large drop in mortgage approvals was partially reversed in July. But the rise was small, and these figures continue to highlight that tight credit conditions are... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jul.) July’s public finance figures brought no end to the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position evident since the beginning of the financial year. 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Not only did retail sales post a reasonable rise in July, but an upward revision to June’s figures added to other evidence suggesting that the preliminary estimate of GDP will be revised up next week... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug. 12) & Labour market (Jun./Jul. 12) The minutes of August’s MPC meeting supported our view that more policy stimulus is likely before long. Meanwhile, the labour market remains puzzlingly resilient, but we doubt that this can last with... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Cities & Regions Data Response The ONS data confirm reports from other sources that back in June, the London housing market remained strong. However we are less confident about some of the apparent strength reported for some other... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) UK inflation rose for the first time in four months in July, but the increase was driven by temporary factors. We still expect inflation to be back below its 2% target within two or three months. 14th August 2012 · 1 min read