UK Data Response CBI Ind. Survey (Oct./Q4) & Mervyn King's Speech Today’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey for October and Q4 brought more gloomy news on the state of demand for manufactured goods. Meanwhile, Mervyn King left the door open to more quantitative easing in... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Sep.) September’s better than expected public finances figures will offer some cheer for the Chancellor. Nevertheless, it still looks like borrowing in 2012/13 will overshoot the OBR’s forecast. The dilemma... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s rise in the official measure of retail sales volumes suggested that consumers have loosened their purse strings a little. However, the rise partly reflected temporary sources of support... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Oct.) & Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) October’s MPC minutes showed that the Committee is split over whether to do more quantitative easing (QE) once the current round of asset purchases are completed in the next couple of weeks. 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s fall in inflation took it within a whisker of its 2% target. Although this is likely to be the last drop for a while, we still expect the weakness of the economy to pull inflation... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Aug.) August’s weak industrial production and trade figures indicated that the underlying trend in GDP is flat at best and therefore undermined hopes that the “green shoots” of economic recovery are... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) September’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that consumer spending may be showing some tentative signs of recovery. But whether this is the start of a sustained recovery on the high... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Sep.) September’s CIPS/Markit report on services was consistent with the message from the other activity surveys released earlier this week, namely of an economy which is struggling to grow. While some... 3rd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Sep.) & Mortgage Approvals (Aug.) Today’s economic data presented a uniformly weak picture of economic activity and will therefore go some way to dampening hopes that the “green shoots” of recovery are emerging. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Consumer sentiment continues to be very depressed. Admittedly, the small rise in confidence in September is consistent with the pick-up in other economic indicators in recent weeks. But the underlying... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The slight upward revision to GDP in Q2 did not alter the big picture that output is still over 4% below its pre-recession peak. We continue to expect GDP to contract by 0.5% this year and expect only... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep.) September’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that sales growth may have picked up slightly. While this is consistent with some of the other tentative signs of “green shoots” in the last few... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey suggested that lenders expect the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) to boost the availability of credit to households. However, the picture... 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Aug. 12) August’s poor public finances figures have further increased the chances that the deficit will significantly exceed the level specified in the fiscal plans. 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) While the Olympics appears to have created some winners and losers on the high street, August’s official figures show that the Games failed to provide an overall boost to retail spending. 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Sep.) September’s MPC minutes did little to diminish the prospects of further policy stimulus over the coming months. We continue to expect further asset purchases to be announced at November’s meeting. 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
