UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) While March’s MPC minutes revealed that the three members who voted for more QE last month remained on their own in calling for more stimulus, we continue to think that the Committee will do more... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) UK CPI inflation broke its recent stable run to rise from 2.7% to 2.8% in February. Inflation is likely to pick up further in the near-term. However, the MPC has indicated that it will “look through”... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jan.) January’s official industrial and trade figures suggested that the economy is still struggling to rebalance and indicated that the risk of a further contraction in GDP in Q1 remains high. 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Feb. 13) The slight improvement in February’s CIPS/Markit report on services could well be the decisive factor that prevents the MPC from restarting its quantitative easing programme this week. But the... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) On the face of it, February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that a resurgence in consumer spending is underway. But temporary factors can likely explain much of that month’s strong growth. At... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Feb.) & Mortgage Approvals (Jan.) February’s CIPS manufacturing survey added to evidence that it is touch and go whether the economy has avoided entering a triple-dip recession. 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) February’s unchanged level of consumer confidence is consistent with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that the consumer sector is lacking momentum. Whether last week’s credit rating... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy finished 2012 on a weak footing. And with signs that activity has struggled to pick up at the start of 2013, a triple-dip recession can still... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that the momentum enjoyed by retailers in the first month of the year is fading. Pressures on household budgets, not least the recent jump in petrol... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jan.) Stripping out the one-off factors affecting the numbers, January’s public finances figures revealed a modest improvement on last year’s outturn. But the big picture is still that the downward progress... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) February’s MPC minutes provided another clear demonstration of the Committee’s increasingly flexible approach to inflation targeting. We continue to think that more QE is only a few months away. 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s surprise fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes has brought the recent run of better economic news to an abrupt end. While most of this weakness appears to have reflected the... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) The Bank of England has presented another gloomy Inflation Report, showing inflation projected to be stronger over the next couple of years even though the recovery is still expected to be sluggish... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) Inflation held at 2.7% for the fourth month in a row in January and is likely to rise further before falling later this year. Tomorrow’s Inflation Report will paint a nasty picture of weak growth and... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Dec. 12) December’s industrial production and trade figures added to evidence that the economic picture improved at the tail end of last year. But the fact that the trade deficit for the year as a whole... 7th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) January’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that retailers managed to escape relatively unscathed from the bad weather in the middle of the month. But with consumer confidence still low and real pay... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
