UK Data Response Provisional GDP (Q1) By posting a better than expected 0.3% quarterly expansion in the first quarter, the UK has comfortably avoided a triple-dip recession. As the Chart shows, the big picture is still one of broad... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) The fall in April’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provides further reason to think that the pick-up in the consumer sector earlier this year was just temporary. With employment now falling and the... 24th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2) The latest CBI Industrial Trends survey has continued to present conflicting signals on the health of the manufacturing sector. All things considered, we would place more weight on its downbeat... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Mar.) From the Chancellor’s perspective, March’s public finances data delivered some good news, with underlying borrowing for 2012/13 coming in below 2011/12’s level. But the big picture is that the... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes was unsurprising given that month’s unusually severe weather. This still left sales up in the first quarter of 2013 as a whole. Nonetheless... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) & Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still seems to be in a state of paralysis ahead of the new Governor’s arrival in July, despite indications that the weakness of the economy is finally starting to... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) While CPI inflation rate was unchanged at 2.8% in March, it still looks set to climb over the summer. Nonetheless, the recent fall in oil prices has brightened the outlook for inflation further ahead. 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Feb.) While February’s industrial production and trade figures increased the chances that the economy has just about avoided a so-called triple-dip recession, they hardly painted a picture of strength. 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) Against the recent awful weather, March’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor delivered a reasonably positive result. While the timing of Easter will have provided a boost to March’s figure, sales in Q1 as a... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar. 13) The modest uptick in March’s CIPS/Markit report on services still suggests that GDP did no better than flatline in Q1 and that a triple-dip remains a risk. The faint signs of life in the economy may... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Credit Conditions Survey & Housing Equity Withdrawal (Q1) The Bank of England’s latest Credit Conditions Survey indicates that the Funding for Lending Scheme is still having a positive impact on the supply and cost of credit. But even if lenders follow... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) & Mortgage Approvals (Feb.) The weakness of the CIPS manufacturing survey in March suggests that the economy is continuing to make little progress towards rebalancing and has kept the threat of a so-called triple-dip recession... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s still weak level of consumer confidence tallies with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that the consumer sector is still fundamentally quite fragile. And looking ahead, we... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Acc., Bal. of Payments (Q4) & FPC Statement (Mar.) The national accounts confirmed that the UK economy finished last year on a very weak footing and kept alive the risk of a triple-dip recession. Meanwhile, the Financial Policy Committee’s statement... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar. 13) March’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey was something of a mood dampener following a run of good news from the retail sector. With real pay continuing to be squeezed and little in the recent Budget to... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Feb.) February’s retail sales figures provided some positive news after the gloom of yesterday’s Budget. Meanwhile, the latest public finance figures gave some support to the OBR’s judgement that public... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read