UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) & Labour market (Jun./Jul.) MPC member Martin Weale’s vote against the introduction of forward guidance will hardly help to reassure the markets about the strength of the MPC’s commitment to keep interest rates low. 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) Although July’s fall in inflation was largely a reflection of unusual price movements in the same month last year, we think a sustained fall in price pressures is now in train. 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jun.) June’s trade figures suggest that the external sector is now joining in the economic recovery. But while the trade deficit narrowed, a recovery that continues to be primarily led by the consumer will... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) The MPC’s new “forward guidance” supports our view that interest rates are unlikely to rise until 2016 or even 2017, even if the recovery keeps strengthening. 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jun 13.) June’s surge in industrial production was the most convincing sign yet that the sector is sharing in the recovery already underway in the rest of the economy. While industry will struggle to replicate... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) The strong expansion in July’s BRC measure of retail sales suggests that the consumer recovery continued apace at the start of the third quarter. But falling real earnings and lacklustre job growth... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jul.) With July’s CIPS/Markit measure of services activity rising to a level unseen for six and a half years, a recovery in the dominant part of the UK economy looks increasingly entrenched. While some... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) July’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing gave the most encouraging signal to date that the industrial sector’s recovery is gathering momentum. 1st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Provisional GDP (Q2) The first estimate of GDP in Q2 confirmed that the UK recovery is picking up pace. While there are still significant obstacles to overcome before a strong and sustained recovery is in sight, the... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q3) Although the Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates and quantitative easing unchanged at new Governor Mark Carney’s first meeting today, it took the first step towards introducing some sort of... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jun.) The underlying picture for the public finances is one of stalled progress in deficit reduction. The Chancellor will be hoping that the nascent economic recovery will change this picture soon. But, for... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun 13.) June’s second consecutive monthly expansion in retail sales volumes provided further evidence that a consumer-led recovery is gaining strength. But, although consumer confidence is picking up and... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul 13.) & Labour market (May/Jun 13) The minutes of July’s MPC minutes suggested that the new Governor Mark Carney has united the Committee around using forward guidance rather than more quantitative easing to boost the economy... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s inflation figures suggested that underlying price pressures in the economy are still fairly weak and have therefore kept the door wide open to more action from the Monetary Policy Committee at... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (May 13) May’s industrial production and trade figures were something of a disappointment given the recent upbeat tone of the manufacturing surveys. Although the overall economic recovery may still have... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun. 13) With further expansion in June meaning the BRC’s measure of retail sales has now been positive in five of the first six months of 2013, the consumer recovery seems to be gaining an ever-firmer footing... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
