UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The final estimate of Q2 GDP left the quarterly rise unrevised at a decent 0.7% and timelier economic data suggest that the recovery has gained more momentum since. However, the news that the current... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Sep 13.) The further strengthening of the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in September provides reassurance that August’s drop in the official measure of retail sales was just a blip. For now, rising consumer... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Aug.) Following a run of disappointing monthly public sector borrowing numbers, August’s public finances data suggested that the economic recovery could be finally starting to make its presence felt in the... 20th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s fall in retail sales volumes may well reflect the impact of the summer’s prolonged warm spell, rather than any underlying weakness in shoppers’ desire to spend. That said, the first monthly... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Sep.) September’s MPC minutes suggest that, despite the arguably disappointing impact of forward guidance, the Committee is happy with its policy stance. A resumption of quantitative easing (QE) before the... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) & Lloyds sale August’s fall in CPI inflation marks another step towards the 2% rate we think it could reach early next year. An end to the squeeze on households’ real earnings remains in sight. 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Jul./Aug.) The drop in the ILO unemployment rate to 7.7% in the three months to July is consistent with signs of economic recovery and takes the rate closer to the MPC’s 7% threshold. But with scope for a... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. & Trade (Jul.), BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey (Q3) One criticism levelled at Robert Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) is that – for the S&P 500 at least – the denominator has been depressed by accounting changes. This has led... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Aug.) With August’s CIPS/Markit measure of services activity rising to a six and a half year high, the UK economy’s dominant sector appears to be roaring ahead. But evidence that increased demand is being... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) While August saw the BRC’s measure of retail sales growth slow a touch, another month of expansion should boost retailers’ confidence that a solid, if unspectacular, rise in consumer spending is... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Aug.) & FLS data (Q2) August’s CIPS manufacturing survey added to the proliferation of evidence indicating that the sector is recovering rapidly. Meanwhile, the most recent update on the usage of the Funding for Lending... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug. 13 ) The improving trend in consumer sentiment provides some hope that the recent rises in household spending will be maintained even though consumers’ real incomes are still being squeezed. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug.) August’s improvement in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the underlying recovery in the retail sector has strengthened further. But the fact that retailers have been unable to push... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) The second estimate of Q2 GDP showed that the recovery has been gathering momentum even more quickly than previously thought, with timelier data reinforcing that picture. It is looking better-balanced... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jul 13.) Despite signs of life in the economy, July’s public finances data suggest that these are being slow to support the fiscal figures. Admittedly, the impact of the economic recovery on the public purse... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s rise in sales volumes to a new record high is a further promising sign that a consumer resurgence is in progress. But the pattern of sales suggests the sunny weather played an important role in... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
