UK Data Response MPC minutes (Apr.) & Public Finances (Mar.) The minutes of April’s MPC meeting suggested that the first rise in official interest rates remains some way off. Meanwhile, March’s public finances brought some fairly positive news on the speed of... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar 14.) The latest labour market figures showing that average earnings are finally rising at a faster rate than prices mark another major milestone in the economy’s recovery. 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar 14.) The further fall in CPI inflation in March suggested that the six-year squeeze on real wages is finally over and took it a step closer to the 1% figure we think it could reach by the end of the year. 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar 14.) The weakness of the latest BRC retail sales figures, which reflects seasonal factors, is unlikely to be sustained. With real pay on the cusp of rising, the consumer recovery should continue apace over... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Feb.) February’s trade figures showed that the economy is still struggling to rebalance towards exports. And in the coming years, progress is likely to be slow at best while demand in the euro-zone remains... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s official figures showed that the recovery in the industrial sector still has plenty of momentum. As a result, they provided reassurance that the economic recovery is broad-based and is... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Services (Mar.) & Credit Con. Survey (Q1.) The further deterioration in the tone of the CIPS/Markit services survey in March shouldn’t ring too many alarm bells about the strength of the economic recovery. 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) & FPC Record (Mar.) Although March’s CIPS manufacturing report indicated that the sector’s recovery may have lost some steam over the first quarter, this seems unlikely to herald the beginning of a renewed slowdown. 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The national accounts for the fourth quarter presented a mixed report card on the economy’s progress towards rebalancing. 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s GfK/NOP survey showed that consumers remain in buoyant mood and supports our expectation that the recovery in household spending will maintain its recent momentum. 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb 14.) February’s surge in retail sales confirmed that consumers are still loosening their purse strings and provided some reassurance that the economic recovery has not lost pace in the first quarter. 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar.) Despite the slightly weaker tone of March’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey, retailers enjoyed decent sales growth over Q1 as a whole. And looking ahead, we expect the consumer recovery to maintain its... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) The further fall in CPI inflation in February took it another step towards the 1% rate which we think it could reach later this year and which would provide additional support to the economic recovery... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) February’s public finances figures confirmed that the UK’s budget deficit is continuing to make steady but slow downward progress. But the fiscal consolidation still has a very long way to go. 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Data (Jan./Feb.) & MPC Minutes (Mar.) Today’s figures showed that the recovery in the labour market is slowing, increasing the chances that the MPC keeps official interest rates on hold until late next year. 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) The latest trade figures show that the economic recovery is still struggling to broaden out to include exports. This looks likely to remain the case so long as the euro-zone’s economic recovery... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read