UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) July’s fall in CPI inflation has put it back on a downward trend which we still thinkcould see it ease to as low as 1% by the end of the year. The UK economy remainson track, then, to enjoy a... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Second estimate of GDP (Q2) The second estimate of GDP confirmed that the economic recovery remainedstrong, but became a little less balanced in the second quarter. 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) July’s weak BRC Retail Sales Monitor may raise concern that the consumer recoveryis losing steam. However, the underlying picture is probably not as weak as it looks. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction (Jun.) June’s trade and construction data provided further evidence that the economicrecovery became more unbalanced in the second quarter. 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production figures confirmed that the onus was even more on theservices sector to keep the recovery chugging along in the second quarter.However, the industrial recovery should build... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Services (Jul.) After a slightly softer run of official and survey data, the improvement in the CIPSservices survey in July provided reassurance that the recovery is not losing pace andraises the chances that the MPC... 5th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) While the key activity balances of the CIPS manufacturing survey softened in July,they still point to strong growth in the third quarter and so suggest that the sector isstill thriving is spite of... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The meagre growth in the official measure of retail sales volumes in June probablyunderstates the underlying strength of the consumer recovery. 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided an encouraging sign that retail sales got off to a strong start to the third quarter. What’s more, the outlook remains bright for a continued robust... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) & BoE Agents’ Scores (Jun.) The minutes of July’s MPC meeting contained further signs that the Committee is edging closer to raising interest rates. While we think that the MPC will be cautious and wait until early 2015 to... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q3) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for July and the third quarter provided anencouraging sign that May’s surprisingly weak industrial production figures arelikely to prove short-lived. 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s fiscal numbers contained further signs that the coalition is struggling tobring the deficit down in line with the plans. Nonetheless, there are reasons toexpect the trend in public borrowing to... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (May/Jun.) Although employment has continued to grow rapidly, there still appears to beenough slack in the jobs market to prevent pay from picking up. 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While consumer price inflation rose quite sharply in June, there remain compellingreasons to expect it to ease further over the second half of 2014. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) Whilst retailers appear to have fared well over the second quarter as a whole,June’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided further evidence that the ongoing pricewar between supermarkets is depressing the... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (May) May’s trade figures provided more disappointing news that manufacturers may be struggling to cope with sterling’s strength. And with exporters still facing a number of headwinds, we expect export... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
