UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Jan.) January’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing provided some encouraging signs that the sharp fall in oil prices since last summer is finally beginning to support the sector’s recovery. 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The strength of January’s GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence suggests that consumers’ spirits have been lifted by their stronger purchasing power, partly as a result of the collapse in the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) January’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey indicates that consumers are spending the windfall from lower oil prices and higher earnings and suggests that strong retail sales growth over the festive... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q4) While the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP brings further evidence that the UK’s economic recovery lost a little pace towards the end of the last year, the recent sharp fall in oil prices suggests that... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s retail sales figures painted a surprisingly upbeat picture of high street spending over the Christmas period. Although we doubt spending growth can remain this strong, the prospects for the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jan. & Q1) The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey indicated that weak overseas demand is continuing to keep a lid on the pace of the manufacturing sector’s recovery. 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s public finance figures showed that the pace of deficit reduction remains very slow given the economy’s recent strength and so cast doubt over whether the much bigger planned reductions in... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jan.) & Labour market (Nov./Dec.) The latest labour market figures showed that the recovery in real wages is gathering pace. Despite this, an interest rate rise still looks a way off, with the MPC turning its attention in its recent... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation took another big step down in December and the halving in the oil price since the summer should mean that the UK comes within a whisker of deflation soon. But with the MPC focused on the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) While, on the face of it, the annual drop in the BRC’s measure of like-for-like sales in December is disappointing, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the underlying strength of retail... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s figures on industrial production and trade presented a mixed picture of the health of the UK’s recovery towards the end of 2014. But 2015 should prove to be a better year for UK exporters... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Demand for mortgage lending contracted at the fastest pace since the financial crisis in the final quarter of 2014, but lenders expect a small recovery at the start of this year. By contrast, demand... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Dec.) While the deterioration of the Markit/CIPS services survey in December brought more evidence of a soft end to 2014, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. Indeed, the recent... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) The latest set of national accounts leave the economic recovery looking more fragile than it appeared before. Nonetheless, there are compelling reasons to be optimistic about the growth outlook. 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec.) While the strength of December’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey is likely to be exaggerated by the inclusion of “Black Friday” sales, it still provides another encouraging sign on the underlying... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) While the latest public finance figures showed that the trend in borrowing has finally begun to improve, the pace at which the deficit is falling remains disappointingly slow given the strength of the... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
