UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) While the public finances have finally shown significant improvement in recent months, they have not lessened the need for a major re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze soon after the election. 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour market (Jan./Feb.) The latest labour market figures were a bit disappointing, but there was enough good news for the Chancellor to trumpet in his Budget later today. Meanwhile, the latest MPC minutes echoed Governor... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) Following the substantial net trade boost to the economic recovery in Q4, January’s trade figures brought more good news on the economy’s rebalancing. But sterling’s recent strength suggests that the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The latest industrial production figures provided further disappointing signs that the sector’s recovery is struggling to re-gain momentum, after almost grinding to a halt in the fourth quarter. But... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) The latest BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided more evidence that the recovery in retail spending has lost some pace at the start of this year, after a stellar fourth quarter. But falling unemployment... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Feb.) The slight deterioration in the headline activity balance of February’s CIPS/Markit report on services was a bit of a disappointment, but hardly a disaster. The general tone of the survey was actually... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Feb.) & Mortgage Approvals (Jan.) The latest manufacturing and lending figures brought further encouragement that the economic recovery is regaining pace after late 2014’s soft patch. 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The strong level of the GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence in February provides further reassurance that households are likely to spend rather than save the vast bulk of the proceeds from... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) While the second estimate of Q4 GDP confirmed that the recovery lost some pace at the tail end of 2014, the new expenditure breakdown showed that the recovery has become better balanced, with net... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey makes for somewhat disappointing reading. But with earnings growth picking up and lower energy prices providing a substantial windfall, the recovery in... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances & retail sales (Jan.) January’s public finance figures are likely to have brought a smile to the Chancellor’s face insofar as they show that the economic recovery is finally having a positive impact on the public purse... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s MPC meeting showed that the Committee is more divided about the next move in interest rates than the unanimous vote would suggest. The healthy labour market figures released... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI inflation reached a record low in January and we think that it is more likely than not that inflation turns negative soon. But with few signs that low inflation is becoming ingrained, the UK’s... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that deflation is now on the horizon, but that it will be fairly short-lived. Indeed, the stronger medium-term inflation forecast was a warning to... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) The latest BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggests that consumer spending retained a fair degree of momentum at the start of the year. What’s more low energy prices should ensure that spending remains... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Dec.) Whilst December’s trade data are not as bad as they first appear, the strong pound and weak demand from the euro-zone are likely to prevent a material improvement in the external position in 2015. 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
