UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) According to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, weak food sales pulled down overall retail sales growth in April. However, high levels of consumer confidence, strong jobs growth and rising... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q1) With the general election just days away, the news that the economic recovery slowed sharply in the first quarter clearly won’t help the coalition parties. However, we expect the slowdown to be only... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2) The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided some reasons to be optimistic that the sector’s poor performance in the first quarter does not herald the beginning of a prolonged period of weakness. 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Mar.) The last public finances figures before the general election brought some good news for the incumbent coalition. However, weak retail sales figures for March increase the chances that next Tuesday’s... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) The minutes of April’s MPC meeting showed that the Committee has become slightly less concerned by the downside risks to the inflation outlook. But with inflation set to hover near zero for another... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Feb./Mar.) The UK’s employment miracle shows no signs of drawing to a close. And with some slack still left in the labour market and pay growth not yet threatening the 2% inflation target, the MPC remains under... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) UK inflation held at zero in March, but it could yet dip into negative territory at some point in the coming months. But regardless of whether inflation turns negative or not, the big picture is that... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) Whilst the latest BRC Retail Sales Monitor was distorted somewhat by the early timing of Easter this year, it still offered encouraging signs that deflationary pressures on the high street are not... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Construction Output (Feb.) While February’s official industrial and construction figures suggest that GDP growth in Q1 may be disappointingly weak, we doubt that they signal that the economic recovery is now a busted flush. 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Feb.) February’s trade deficit came in worse than expected and will re-ignite fears that the strong pound and weakness in demand in the euro-zone is acting as a straightjacket on exporters. However, there... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Mar.) March’s UK Markit/CIPS report on services provided further reassurance that the economic recovery is still on a fast track despite the uncertainty created by the upcoming general election. 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) & Productivity (Q4) March’s UK CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing added to recent survey evidence suggesting that the sector’s recovery is picking up pace. 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The latest set of national accounts leave the economic recovery at the end of last year looking a bit stronger than before. We expect growth to remain robust this year, although the large current... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rise in the GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence to a 12-year high in March adds to other signs suggesting that households are poised to spend their windfall from lower energy prices. 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s retail sales figures suggested that the recovery in spending has got back on track, after a weak start to the year. What’s more, the prospects for the rest of the year remain bright. 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) With inflation hitting zero in February, the UK is on the cusp of deflation. But a brief period of gently falling prices driven by lower energy prices is nothing to be feared – in the UK, at least... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
