UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (May) May’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing provided further evidence that the economic recovery is extremely dependent on the services sector at present. 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) While the composite index of the GfK consumer confidence survey softened in May, it remained at a high level by past standards and so still indicates that consumers are likely to spend virtually all... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1) The lack of any upward revision to GDP in Q1 was a bit disappointing, but the figures will probably still be revised further ahead. Meanwhile, the big drag from net trade was hardly good news, but the... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) The very strong tone of the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the recovery in consumer spending gathered pace in the second quarter. And there are reasons to be optimistic about the... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) While April’s figures bring more good news on the current health of the public finances, a major and painful re-intensification of the fiscal squeeze will still be required for the Government to... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April’s retail sales figures offer another reason to think that the economic recovery is not fizzling out. And with the fundamental drivers of spending looking good, we expect the consumer recovery to... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (May) The minutes of May’s MPC meeting supported the message from last week’s Inflation Reportthat the most likely next move in interest rates will be up, but not for some time. Although two members still... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The UK has finally joined other advanced economies in experiencing deflation. This is a positive development and the risk that deflation becomes ingrained and so starts to have adverse effects remains... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s Bank of England Inflation Report supports financial markets’ (and our own) view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is in no rush to raise interest rates. However, we do not think that the... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Mar./Apr.) The soft tone of the labour market figures should temper expectations of a near-term interest rate rise following yesterday’s relatively hawkish comments by some MPC members. Although the fall in... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s industrial production figures were a tentatively encouraging sign that a recovery in the sector is resuming after several months of stagnation. 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) We doubt that the weakness in the latest BRC Retail sales figures offers much cause for concern. Indeed, with real wages rising robustly, employment strong and consumer confidence at a 12-year high... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) Although all eyes this morning have been on the general election result, March’s trade figures have also been released and help to explain some of the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Apr.) April’s Markit/CIPS report on services should allay fears of a renewed slowdown in the economy following the deterioration in the manufacturing and construction surveys already released. That said... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.) & Money and Credit (Mar.) The combination of the deterioration of the Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing but improvement in the lending figures highlighted that the economic recovery has become increasingly dependent on... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The latest consumer confidence figures provided another reason to think that Q1’s slowdown in economic growth will prove short lived. Indeed, with real incomes growing strongly, we expect household... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
