UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (May) Good news on the trade deficit in May was tempered by signs the construction sector’s recovery is struggling to get back on track. But since both sets of statistics are erratic, we would caution... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production figures provided further reassurance that the economic recovery managed to gather pace in the second quarter despite the stronger pound and euro-zone debt crisis. 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jun.) June’s Markit/CIPS report on services provided further reassurance that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 was just temporary and that the Greek crisis has so far had little bearing on the recovery’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Jun.) June’s disappointing Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing suggested that the industrial side of the economy is playing no role in the economic recovery at themoment – indeed, it may even have dragged... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The national accounts showed that the recovery has more momentum than previously thought. And while the fall in household saving and huge current account deficit suggested that recent growth has... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The upbeat tone of June’s GfK consumer confidence survey suggests that household spending should continue to grow robustly in the near term and is another reason to think that the overall economic... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) The weakening in June’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey just reflected the balances returning to a more realistic level. The big picture is that retail sales volumes still seem to be growing at a... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jun.) Despite the weaker tone of June’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey, it still suggests that the manufacturing sector’s recovery found some renewed momentum in the second quarter, after virtually grinding... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures brought some more good news to the Chancellor ahead of his first Budget of the new parliament on 8th July. However, with a long way to go in order to restore the public... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Data (Apr./May) The latest labour market figures contained further signs of a pick-up in nominal wage growth. If this continues without any recovery in productivity, then a rate rise could come back on the table this... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) May’s consumer prices figures showed that deflation lasted for just one month, but the big picture is that inflation is set to remain extremely low during the rest of 2015. 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Construction Output (Apr.) The latest construction output figures supported our judgement that the economic recovery has had more pace than recent GDP estimates had indicated. Given the broad-based strength of the business... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s industrial production figures provided more evidence that GDP growth is rebounding in the second quarter after its weakness in Q1. 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) April’s trade figures should have provoked a bit of a sigh of relief. Although the near-term outlook for the external sector does not look fantastic, at least net trade this quarter looks unlikely to... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) May’s BRC retail sales figures indicated that consumer spending is growing much more slowly than households’ incomes. But with unemployment low and confidence high, we still think that the income... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (May) & OECD Ec. Outlook The unexpected fall in May’s Markit/CIPS report on services shows that the economic recovery is still a bit fragile. However, there are no obvious reasons why the economy should be seeing a sustained... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
