UK Data Response Trade (Jun.) The widening of the trade deficit in June is likely to be the start of a further deterioration in coming months, thanks to the stronger pound and the weakness of demand in the euro-zone. 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Decision, Minutes & Inflation Report (Aug.) The ‘Super Thursday’ releases from the MPC suggested that an interest rate rise is still not imminent. The Committee wants to be cautious and wait for price pressures to emerge before pressing the... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production figures highlighted that the strong pound and weak overseas demand held back the manufacturing sector’s recovery in the second quarter. And the prospects for the rest of... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jul.) & GDP revisions The slight deterioration in July’s Markit/CIPS services survey is unlikely to dissuade two or three members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from voting to raise interest rates at this week’s... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) July’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggested that the sector has struggled to regain traction at the start of Q3, after a poor showing in Q2. And the prospects for the industrial recovery over... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The GfK consumer confidence survey softened in July, but remained high by historical standards. This suggests that the consumer recovery still has plenty of momentum and that household spending should... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) Despite softening a little, July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey nonetheless remained robust and the big picture is that retail sales volumes still seem to be growing at a fairly healthy rate. 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2) The first estimate of GDP in Q2 confirmed that the economic recovery got back on track after its slowdown at the start of the year. On the face of it, this could bring an interest rate rise closer... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q2) July’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey provided more evidence that the strongerpound has snuffed out the recovery in the manufacturing sector. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The weaker tone of June’s retail sales figures does not alter the big picture that the consumer recovery remains in full swing. And with the UK set to experience another period of “good” deflation... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) The minutes of July’s MPC meeting gave strong hints that at least a couple of members are on the brink of voting to raise Bank Rate. Undeniably, the probability of a 2015 rate rise has grown over the... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) While June’s public finances brought less encouraging news on the pace of deficit reduction, there is no need for the Chancellor to panic yet. Indeed, robust growth in tax receipts suggests that the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (May/Jun.) The soft tone of the labour market figures should temper expectations of a near-term interest rate rise following yesterday’s relatively hawkish comments by some MPC members. Although the fall in... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s consumer prices figures showed that the UK is continuing to benefit from a period of very low inflation brought on by lower energy and import prices. There are still no signs that low inflation... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) June’s BRC retail sales figures suggest that consumer spending made another chunky contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter. What’s more, rising real incomes and strong confidence should... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
