UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The weaker-than-expected tone of September’s GfK consumer confidence survey does little to alter the view that consumer spending growth should maintain a healthy degree of momentum over the coming... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public borrowing figures brought the recent run of good news on the public finances to an abrupt end. That said, hopefully this will just be a temporary blip, as tax receipts should be... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s retail sales figures showed that the pace of spending growth on the high street has remained fairly feeble so far this quarter. But we doubt that this signals a more widespread slowdown in... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Jul./Aug.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the recent slowdown in the pace of the jobs recovery was only temporary. However, we don’t think that this will prompt the MPC to hike rates soon. 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) UK inflation is still bouncing around zero and is likely to remain there for most of the rest of this year. This period of virtually no inflation is a good thing for the UK, as it is giving a welcome... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) July’s industrial production and trade figures highlight that the strength of the pound and weakness in demand in key export markets held back the recovery in the manufacturing sector at the beginning... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) On the face of it, August’s weak BRC Retail Sales Monitor may add to concerns that the economy has lost a bit of steam in the third quarter. However, the underlying picture is not as weak as it looks... 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Aug.) The fall in August’s Markit/CIPS report on services will add to concerns about the sustainability of the recovery following the deterioration in the manufacturing survey already released. But we doubt... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Aug.) & Money and Credit (Jul.) August’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing showed that the strong pound is crimping exporters and so suggests that the major support net trade provided to GDP growth in Q2 will be a blip. But there... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) The second estimate of Q2 GDP showed that the recovery received considerable support from net trade. The pound’s recent appreciation suggests that this support is unlikely to last. But with households... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The very strong reading of the GfK consumer confidence survey in August provides reassurance that recent softer growth in retail sales is likely to be just temporary. 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug. & Q3) The upbeat tone of August’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided an encouragingsign that the consumer recovery has continued apace in Q3. And looking ahead, therecent fall in commodity prices... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public borrowing figures showed that the public finances are now benefitingfully from the economic recovery’s strength. But at this early stage of the fiscal year,it is too soon to conclude... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s retail sales figures showed that the pace of spending growth on the high street moderated at the beginning of Q3. But we doubt that this signals a more widespread slowdown in the consumer... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) The small rise in CPI inflation from 0% to 0.1% in July merely reflected the slightly earlier conclusion of summer discounting of clothing this year compared to last and so has little bearing on the... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Jun./Jul.) The latest labour market figures supported the current consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee that interest rates do not need to rise before the end of the year. 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
