UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Oct.) The slight bounce-back in the Markit/CIPS services survey in October brought moree vidence of what we expect will be a rebound in growth in Q4, after the slowdown in Q3. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Oct.) The improvement in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in October suggests that output in the manufacturing sector has regained some vigour going into the final quarter of 2015. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) On the face of it, the dip in October’s GfK consumer confidence survey suggests that the consumer recovery may be running out of steam. But with the headline balance high by past standards and... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) Although the October CBI Distributive Trades Survey indicated a substantial slowdown in retail spending growth compared to September, we do not take it as a sign that the consumer recovery is headed... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q3) The preliminary estimate of GDP confirmed that the economic recovery cooled in the third quarter. We think that this will be only temporary. Nonetheless, the news clearly further reduces the chances... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct. & Q4) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for October and Q4 highlighted the woes of the manufacturing sector. And the near-term prospects remain dim. 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Following a feeble performance in previous months, the renewed vigour in the pace of UK retail spending in September might help to stop overall GDP growth slowing too much in Q3. 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s UK public finance figures suggested that the downward trend in borrowing is back on track after a brief wobble last month. Admittedly, it might still be a struggle to meet the OBR’s... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the jobs recovery is back on track after the dip in employment in the spring. Meanwhile, the easing in pay growth has further reduced the case for a... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) Deflation returned to the UK in September. Although it is likely to be another very brief and shallow affair, this clearly puts the MPC under even less pressure than before to raise interest rates. 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) Although the strength of September’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor reflects some temporary factors, the underlying picture is good too. Robust earnings growth and high confidence should ensure the recovery... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (Aug.) August’s trade and construction figures provided further signs that the UK’s economic recovery lost some pace in Q3, and remained unbalanced. However, we remain confident that the recovery will regain... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s UK industrial production figures were surprisingly good, although they are not enough to have stopped the overall economic recovery from slowing in the third quarter. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Sep.) While the weak tone of the Markit/CIPS services survey in September brought more evidence of a soft end to Q3, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Sep.) September’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing provided further evidence that the economic recovery is extremely dependent on the services sector at present. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The Quarterly National Accounts confirmed that the economic recovery maintained a strong pace in Q2. And although the latest business surveys suggest that growth may have moderated in Q3, we expect... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
