UK Data Response

Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.)

The latest consumer prices figures confirmed that the UK’s brief flirt with deflation came to an end in November. But price pressures look set to remain subdued for a long while yet. Accordingly, the...

15th December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Trade (Oct.)

October’s dismal trade figures provided further signs that the economic recovery has remained worryingly unbalanced in the fourth quarter. And the prospects for exports further ahead remain pretty dim...

10th December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Industrial Production (Oct.)

After a torrid year so far, October’s industrial production figures suggest that theUK manufacturing sector should end the year in better shape.

8th December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.)

The growing prevalence of Black Friday failed to provide much of a boost to retail sales in November. It appears sales were just shifted from the start to the end of November to take advantage of...

8th December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Nov.)

The improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in November reinforces our view that the economy will reverse its temporary slowdown seen in Q3 and offsets the slowing in the manufacturing and...

3rd December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Nov.)

The fall-back in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in November shows that while there may be signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector, it still faces significant challenges.

1st December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q3)

The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that growth in the UK slowed and was relatively unbalanced. That said, we believe that this slowdown will be temporary but that these imbalanced may persist.

27th November 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

UK Consumer Data Response

We doubt that the fall in confidence in November is a sign that the pace of the consumer recovery is unwinding. The headline balance remains strong on a historical basis, and other elements of the GfK...

27th November 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov. & Q4)

November’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey makes for somewhat disappointing reading. But mild weather and distortions related to Black Friday may have dragged on the headline figure, suggesting a...

24th November 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Public Finances (Oct.)

October’s public finance figures suggest that borrowing has not fallen as quickly as the OBR predicted, leaving the Chancellor with less room for manoeuvre in his Autumn Statement on 25th November.

20th November 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Retail Sales (Oct.)

UK retail spending fell slightly in October. But, more importantly, sales held onto most of the strong gain seen in September.

19th November 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.)

October’s -0.1% rate of CPI inflation could be the last we see of deflation for now, although we don’t think inflation will reach the 2% target until 2018.

17th November 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Labour market data (Sep./Oct.)

Labour market activity is still looking quite healthy. But the slowdown in wage growth in the latest figures confirmed that an interest rate rise is still some way off.

11th November 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.)

The significant fall in the BRC Retail Sales Monitor in October reflected temporary factors in both the current and previous months. The underlying picture is more positive, with support from solid...

10th November 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.)

September’s trade and industrial production figures provide further signs that the UK’s economic recovery remained unbalanced in the third quarter.

6th November 2015 · 1 min read