UK Data Response

Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q4)

The preliminary estimate of UK GDP in Q4 confirmed that the recovery ended last year on a slightly lacklustre note, with growth a bit below its trend rate and still driven entirely by the services...

28th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jan. & Q1)

The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for January and Q1 showed that manufacturing didn’t leave its troubles behind in 2015. But the sector’s prospects do appear a little brighter.

25th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Public Finances & Retail Sales (Dec.)

While the latest figures brought some better news on the public finances, the Chancellor still looks likely to overshoot his target this year. Meanwhile, despite the sharp fall in retail sales in...

22nd January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Labour market data (Nov./Dec.)

Today’s figures showed that strong labour market activity did not prevent a further slowdown in pay growth, suggesting that an interest rate hike is still some way off.

20th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.)

December’s consumer prices release confirmed that deflation is in the rear-view mirror, but there aren’t yet any signs which will worry the MPC.

19th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Industrial Production (Nov.)

After a dire performance through much of 2015, November’s industrial productionfigures suggest no change in the manufacturing sector’s fortunes.

12th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.)

The latest BRC retail sales figures suggest that December was a reasonable, but hardly spectacular, end to a strong year for high-street spending. It appears that consumers did not exhaust their...

12th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Trade (Nov.)

November’s improved trade figures are unlikely to be sufficient for the external sector to support the economy in Q4. And further ahead, the economic recovery looks set to remain reliant on domestic...

8th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Dec.)

December’s UK Markit/CIPS report on services suggested that the biggest part of the economy ended last year on a slightly weaker note. GDP growth in the fourth quarter should still have managed to...

6th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Dec.) & Money and Credit (Nov.)

While December’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey offers a glimmer of hope that the sector’s recession has drawn to a close, the improvement in the fourth quarter as a whole looks like it is built on...

4th January 2016 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3)

The Quarterly National Accounts suggest that the economic recovery has less momentum than previously thought and still looks worryingly unbalanced.

23rd December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Public Finances (Nov.)

There was no festive cheer for the Chancellor in November’s public finances figures. Indeed, it now looks almost impossible for Mr. Osborne to meet the OBR’s public borrowing forecast for the fiscal...

22nd December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Dec.)

The latest consumer confidence figures support our expectation that Q4 will have been another strong quarter for the consumer. But we anticipate that spending growth will wane a little next year as...

22nd December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec.)

December’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey signals a fairly strong end to a strong quarter for retail sales growth. It also supports the view that last month’s weak survey reading was a blip, and not...

21st December 2015 · 1 min read

UK Data Response

Retail Sales (Nov.)

The official UK retail sales figures painted a far more upbeat picture of high streetspending in the early run-up to Christmas than the anecdotal and survey evidence.

17th December 2015 · 1 min read