UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) CPI inflation continued on its upward path in July and looks set to breach the 2% target in the first half of next year, as sterling’s fall pushes consumer prices up. 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jun.) June’s figures on industrial production and trade were fairly disappointing, suggesting that April’s strong manufacturing growth was not sustained and net trade will probably provide little support to... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) July’s BRC sales data show no sign of a slowdown in household spending following the EU referendum. But some other measures have been less positive, and we will have to wait until next week for the... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Jul.) July’s final Markit/CIPS headline composite PMI confirmed the steep drop reported in the flash estimate, suggesting that the Brexit vote has had a significant near-term impact on the economy. But we... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jul.) The July UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the surge in manufacturing output in Q2 was a one-off and the vote to leave the EU has added to pressures on the sector. This supports the... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Consumer confidence fell sharply in the weeks following the referendum, led by a drop in perception of the economy’s health. However, the survey was conducted during a period of extreme political... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey paints a fairly dismal picture of the retail sector in the days following the EU referendum. However, the survey hasn’t been an especially reliable guide to the... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2) Today’s UK GDP figures showed that growth held up well in Q2 despite the uncertainty created in the run-up to the referendum. But this appeared to be driven completely by growth in April – boding... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q3) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for July and Q3 showed that manufacturers are not immune from the Brexit-related economic slowdown. But whether their gloominess persists now that the dust has settled... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Flash PMIs (Jul.) The first economy-wide gauge of post-referendum activity suggests that the UK economy probably contracted in the weeks after the vote. But with market sentiment having improved and political... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jun.) Government borrowing in June was well down on a year ago and retail sales showed a strong increase in Q2. But borrowing still wasn’t on track to meet the OBR’s forecast and June’s sales set a poor... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market & BoE Agents’ Scores (May/Jun.) The latest labour market figures showed that despite the referendum looming at thetime, the jobs recovery remained in fine fettle in Q2. But this shouldn’t prevent theMonetary Policy Committee from... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) June’s rise should be the start of an upward trend in inflation in the wake of sterling’s referendum-related slide. But while inflation will probably breach the 2% target in a year’s time, this... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) June’s BRC sales data – which cover the days both before and immediately after the EU referendum – show the retail sector faltering. But we will have to wait a bit longer before a clear picture of the... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (May) & GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul.) While the latest trade figures highlighted the unbalanced nature of the recovery, GfK’s “Brexit special” consumer confidence figures provided some worrying signs that the main engine of growth may be... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (May) The fall in industrial production in May was just a partial reversal of April’s gain, meaning that the sector should provide strong support to overall GDP growth in Q2. But the manufacturing sector’s... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read