UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The improvement in the public finances in August is unlikely to continue as the post-referendum economic slowdown begins to bite and Chancellor Hammond probably eases the fiscal squeeze in the Autumn... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Despite August’s small dip in retail sales, the continued strong trend in spending adds to other evidence suggesting that UK consumers have largely shrugged off the vote for Brexit. 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) Given the lags involved, it’s not particularly surprising that the latest data showed that labour market activity has yet to suffer from the apparent post-referendum slowdown in economic growth. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) August’s stable CPI inflation rate is a temporary pause in an upward trend that should see it rise above the MPC’s target next year. But prospect of above-target inflation probably won’t stop the... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (Jul.) The latest post-referendum official figures indicated that the construction sector held up better than expected in July, and the trade deficit narrowed, continuing the recent trend of relatively... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) Today’s industrial production figures confirmed the previous survey evidence that the leave vote has had an initial adverse impact on the sector in July. But the surveys point to a rebound in... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Aug.) August’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor points to a large dip in official retail sales growth. But the survey hasn’t been an especially good guide of retail sales recently. 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Aug.) August’s Markit/CIPS services PMI confirmed that the collapse seen in July was a temporary reaction to the shock of the vote to leave the EU. But we doubt this will prevent the MPC from easing... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Aug.) The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI for August confirmed out suspicions that the sharp drop in July was an overreaction and adds to other survey evidence suggesting that the economy is getting over the... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) Consumer confidence recovered a little in August in another sign that consumers haven’t been too unsettled by the leave vote. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) Households and firms shrugged off pre-referendum uncertainty, driving an acceleration in GDP growth in the second quarter. But growth looks set to slow significantly as the vote to leave the EU takes... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug. & Q3) Despite the improvement in todays’ CBI Distributive Trades Survey, the figures still point to a slowdown in the official measure of retail sales growth after July’s strength. 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Aug.) The relatively upbeat tone of August’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey gives us another reason to be tentatively optimistic about the extent to which the economy has taken a hit from the referendum... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public finances figures gave us the first indication of how the vote to leave the EU will slow progress in reducing the deficit over the coming years. But the new Chancellor shouldn’t lose much... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s official retail sales figures suggest that consumers haven’t been ruffled by the leave vote. While we would be cautious about reading too much into one month’s figures, this provides a... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) Today’s data showed that the labour market was strong prior to the referendum and the leave vote doesn’t appear to have caused any immediate damage. But the solid figures shouldn’t stop the MPC from... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
