UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s disappointing retail sales figures suggested that shoppers lost some festive cheer at the end of last year. And 2017 is likely to see a further slowdown in spending, as inflation continues... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The latest data suggest that while the labour market has lost some of its shine, it remains resilient despite Brexit uncertainty. 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) While December’s rise in CPI inflation was greater than expected, the increase was driven by components that shouldn’t have too much of an effect on the MPC’s stance on monetary policy. 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Nov.) The latest deluge of economic data as part of the ONS’ new “Theme Days” added to other evidence suggesting that the economy maintained a decent amount of momentum in the fourth quarter, and that... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) December’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor revealed a strong end to the year for consumer spending. But a slowdown in spending growth looks to be in prospect this year, as higher inflation starts to weigh on... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Dec.) December’s Markit/CIPS report on services added to the evidence that the economy will turn in another strong performance in Q4 and hasn’t lost any momentum since the vote to leave the EU. That said... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Dec.) The significant improvement in the December Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey’s main balances provides more evidence that the sector’s post referendum weakness will prove short-lived. This should help... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Dec.) While consumer confidence rose slightly in December, the headline balance suggests that the strong pace of retail spending won’t last too much longer. That said, low interest rates and a resilient... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) The improvement in the public finances in November leaves borrowing on track to meet the OBR’s Autumn Statement forecasts for the current fiscal year. And we think stronger GDP growth will result in a... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec.) December’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that retail spending has put in a strong performance during the festive period. However, consumer spending growth still looks set to slow in the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Nov.) December’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey offered another reason to think that the manufacturing sector is in better health than the recent weak official data suggest. 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) Retail sales growth continued to rise in November, following October’s surge, suggesting the retail sector will provide strong support to GDP growth in Q4. Nonetheless, the rate of spending growth... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) There are some tentative signs that the jobs market has lost some of its earlier strength. But we don’t expect any weakening to be particularly severe. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The rise in CPI inflation is part of an upward trend which will see inflation peak at about 3% in early 2018. However, we don’t think it will trouble the MPC too much. 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) The UK’s trade deficit narrowed sharply in October, following a large upward revision to the Q3 deficit. And the drop in the pound should support net trade’s contribution to GDP growth in the coming... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s industrial production figures showed that the sector started Q4 on a weak footing, following the contraction experienced in Q3. However, the outlook for the sector further ahead appears... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
