UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Rising inflation appears to be starting to weigh on consumer sentiment. That said, confidence remains above its long-run average, suggesting that the expected slowdown in consumer spending growth won... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey made for disappointing reading. On top of the poor official retail sales figures for the start of the year, this adds to the evidence that the hit to consumer... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP was a bit a mixed bag, but confirmed that the UK economy gathered momentum over the course of 2016. While the outlook remains uncertain, we think that the economy will... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) Weak public borrowing compared to the consensus forecast in January was due to a change in the way the ONS measures corporation tax receipts. Revisions to previous months actually means that borrowing... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey added to the evidence that the manufacturing sector is getting back onto its feet. This should help prevent GDP growth from losing too much momentum in the... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) January’s surprise fall in the official measure of retail sales volumes has brought the recent run of resilient economic news to an abrupt end and suggests that the hit to consumer spending growth... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) The latest data suggest that while the labour market has lost some momentum recently, it has held up fairly well in the face of Brexit uncertainty. However, real wage growth has started to become... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI inflation took another step up in January and looks set to breach the MPC’s 2% target next month. However, we don’t think that the forthcoming rise will panic the MPC into hiking interest rates... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) January’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor echoed other evidence that there has been some moderation in consumer spending growth. And with higher inflation set to slow the pace of real income gains, spending... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jan.) January’s Markit/CIPS report on services suggests that the economy lost a little bit of momentum at the start of 2017, following the strong end to 2016. However, the PMI surveys added to signs that... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.) Although price pressures are building rapidly, January’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests the sector started the year on a stronger footing. 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite concerns about the economic outlook, consumer confidence strengthened in January and the details of the survey provide another reason to think that the likely slowdown in spending growth this... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) Following December’s disappointing official retail sales result, January’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that the sector started the year on a poor footing. However, while we think that... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q4) The strong end to last year provides plenty of momentum heading into 2017. And while growth looks set to ease this year, the beneficial effects of the fall in the pound should help to ensure that the... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jan.) January’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey showed that the manufacturing sector has carried a decent amount of momentum into the New Year. 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) The improvement in the public finances in December means that borrowing in the current fiscal year should be slightly below the OBR’s November forecasts. And we think stronger GDP growth will result... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
