UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) Although CPI inflation held steady in July, we still think that it will inch up a bit further before the end of this year, as well as outpace wage growth for a while yet. 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jun.) Today’s deluge of data from the ONS was a bit of a mixed bag. While the manufacturing sector is still underperforming the surveys, and construction output was weaker than expected, net trade looks to... 10th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) Following yesterday’s weak Visa expenditure data, it was reassuring to see that the BRC’s survey of retailers still points to resilient growth in retail sales volumes. 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jul.) After the recent run of softer economic news, the improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in July provides reassurance that the economy has maintained the momentum it gathered over Q2. 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI. (Jul.) July’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI suggests that growth in the sector has accelerated after the disappointing performance in Q2. It also implies that the fall in the pound is boosting external... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Despite growing concerns about the economic outlook, consumers remain upbeat about their own financial position. As a result, we still think that the slowdown in household spending growth this year... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggests that retail spending started Q3 on a solid footing and should be able to maintain recent rates of growth. 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q2) The first estimate of Q2 GDP revealed that the economy gained a little bit of momentum in the second quarter, but growth is still too weak to prompt the Monetary Policy Committee to hike interest... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul.) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey continues to suggest that the recent weakness in the hard manufacturing data will soon be reversed. And the quarterly balances suggest that the improvement will be... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s figures suggest that the public sector finances have started to deteriorate a little. This could limit the scope for an easing in austerity and mean that fiscal policy will still provide a... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June’s retail sales figures suggest that recent talk of a marked consumer slowdown has been overdone and provides another reason to think that next week’s GDP figures should reveal a re-acceleration... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While June’s unexpectedly large drop in CPI inflation is unlikely to prove a turning point, it will nonetheless help to keep the MPC’s hawks in the minority. 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) Despite May’s labour market figures suggesting that the economy is close to full employment, the continued weakness of wage growth provides some ammunition to the more dovish members of the Monetary... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun) The relatively upbeat tone of June’s retail sales monitor adds to other evidence that retail sales volumes re-accelerated at the end of Q2. And there are signs that shop price inflation has already... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (May) Today’s flurry of activity data casts some doubt on the likely strength of the bounce-back in GDP growth in Q2 and adds to the likelihood that rates will stay on hold at the next MPC meeting in August... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jun.) June’s UK Markit/CIPS report on services still suggests that GDP growth has reaccelerated in Q2, after the sharp slowdown experienced in Q1. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
