UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The rise in the manufacturing PMI in October suggests that the sector maintained its momentum at the start of Q4, and may help to reassure the MPC ahead of its decision on Thursday. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence Despite their concerns about the economic outlook, consumers are still upbeat about their own financial position. As a result, we still think that household spending growth should be able to maintain... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) The weakness of October’s CBI Distributive Trades survey was undeniably disappointing. But there are a number of reasons to take the sharp fall in the headline figure with a pinch of salt. 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q3) The latest GDP figures revealed that the economy re-gained a bit of momentum in the third quarter and have probably sealed the deal on an interest rate hike next week. 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct.) October’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey revealed a softening in order books and output expectations. Nonetheless, the survey still suggests that the recent improvement in the performance of the... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) The penultimate set of public finances before the Autumn Budget on 22nd November provided some welcome good news for the Chancellor. However, the likely changes to the OBR’s forecasts could limit the... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Although September’s retail sales figures were far weaker than expected, growth still maintained a fairly reasonable pace over Q3 as a whole. As a result, we doubt that today’s figures will dissuade... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) Employment growth came off the boil a little in August. But with surveys of hiring suggesting that this will be a temporary development while wage growth more-or-less maintained its recent pace, we... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices The rise in CPI inflation in September took it close to its eventual peak and supports our view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will press ahead and raise interest rates in November. 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Aug.) The deluge of official data for August provided some reassurances that the economy has not lost pace in the third quarter and suggested that growth could even nudge up a touch. However, it also showed... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Sep.) Today’s BRC survey suggested that the resilience of retail spending continued in September despite above-target inflation eating further into consumers’ purchasing power. 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Sep.) The rise in September’s services sector PMI will help to assuage fears that the economy is losing momentum, but it suggests that growth struggled to pick up pace in Q3. 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) Despite the weaker PMI survey in September, the manufacturing sector still looks likely to have put in a solid performance over the third quarter as a whole. 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2.) The most interesting element of the National Accounts was the sweeping revisions to the data, including the implementation of the ONS’ annual methodological overhaul, which suggests households’... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence September’s GfK Consumer Confidence survey continues the recent run of more encouraging news on the consumer sector, supporting our view that the slowdown in spending growth won’t be too severe. 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey While we wouldn’t place too much weight on the markedly-strong tone of September’s CBI Distributive Trades survey, it nonetheless supports our view that consumer spending growth probably picked up a... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
