UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) While CPI inflation was higher than the consensus forecast and the MPC’s expectation in November, it has probably now peaked. As a result, there is little need for the MPC to raise interest rates... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Oct.) While the flurry of UK activity data was fairly disappointing, the industrial sector still looks on course to provide solid support to growth in Q4. 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) November’s set of Markit/CIPS surveys provide reassurance that the economy has held on to its recent momentum in the fourth quarter so far, rather than slowing any further. 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.) November’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that the real income squeeze may be constraining households’ discretionary purchases. But with inflation set to drop back in 2018, the outlook for... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) November’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that growth in the sector has accelerated further and provides encouraging signs that this strength will be maintained in the coming months. 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence November’s GfK/NOP survey suggested that consumers have become a bit more pessimistic in the runup to Christmas, perhaps reflecting the first rise in interest rates in a decade. But as the squeeze on... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.) The rebound in the CBI distributive trades survey was especially reassuring given the larger sample size behind this month’s figures. And the notable strength in the forward-looking balances suggests... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Second estimate of GDP (Q3) The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy grew modestly, with households leading the way. Looking ahead, we think that there is scope for a bit of a pick-up in growth, rather than a... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Nov.) November’s survey painted a somewhat mixed picture for the manufacturing sector. Nonetheless, we expect the sector to still put in a fairly solid performance over Q4 as a whole. 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) Despite deteriorating in October, the general trend in the public finances this year has still been an improving one. Nonetheless, the expected downward revisions to the OBR’s economic forecasts will... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s official retail sales figures supported the timelier surveys in suggesting that spending on the high street has lost more momentum. But we doubt that sales growth will slow much further. 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The 14,000 quarterly fall in employment was the first since October last year. But given the strength of the hiring surveys we suspect this will prove a blip rather than the start of a sustained... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The recent upward trend in CPI inflation came to a halt in October. And while inflation could still inch up a little further in November, it is now likely to be close to its peak. 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Sep.) The flurry of activity data suggests that the industrial sector is helping to provide some offset to the consumer slowdown. However, net trade probably dragged on GDP growth in Q3. 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct.) Today’s BRC survey adds to the evidence from the CBI last week that October was a poor month for retailers. However, that is at least partly down to unseasonably warm weather which looks to have... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Oct.) The sharp rise in October’s Markit/CIPS measure of services activity suggests that Q4 got off to a solid start and perhaps provides some early justification for the MPC’s rate hike. 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
