UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Feb.) The rise in the services PMI in February will help to assuage fears of a broad-based slowdown in Q1, instead suggesting that the economy has broadly maintained its pace. That should keep the door open... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) & Money and Credit (Jan.) February’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has lost some momentum in Q1. But the details of the survey were more encouraging, and there is little sign in the latest money and credit figures... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence edged back down in February, but the big picture remains that consumers are still weathering the squeeze on their spending power relatively well. 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Feb.) Despite the fall back in the headline reported sales balance, the survey still points to retail spending growth at least maintaining its current pace. And the forward-looking balances paint an upbeat... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP revealed that the economy grew by a downwardly revised 0.4% q/q in the final quarter of 2017, with annual growth revised down from 1.8% to 1.7%. Encouragingly, however... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) & Public Finances (Jan.) Although unemployment rose in December, employment continued to grow strongly and the surveys suggest that this pace of growth will be sustained in the coming months. Meanwhile, government borrowing... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Feb.) February’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the growth of manufacturing output may have slowed a bit at the start of the year. But the big picture remains that the sector is still performing... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) With real incomes under pressure from weak nominal pay growth and above-target inflation, it isn’t surprising that high-street spending growth has continued to lose momentum. But the worst of the real... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) Despite holding steady in January, we continue to think that CPI inflation will gradually drift downwards over the course of 2018. However, we still think that the Monetary Policy Committee will raise... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Dec.) The deluge of hard data for December provides further evidence that it was the domestic demand and the services sector that drove the pick-up in growth in Q4. However, temporary distortions mean that... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) January’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggests that high-street spending growth maintained a steady pace at the start of 2018. But with inflation set to fall back this year, easing the squeeze on real... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jan.) Following falls in the manufacturing and construction surveys released last week, the weak January services sector survey suggests that the economy lost the momentum it gained in Q4 at the start of... 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The fall in the PMI in January suggests that manufacturing growth slowed a little at the start of the year. But the big picture is that the sector is still performing well by recent standards. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence January’s GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers started the year in fairly good spirits. And with real earnings likely to recover in the second half of this year, there is scope for... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary Estimate of GDP (Q4) The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP revealed that the economy picked up pace in the final three months of 2017, rounding off a solid, albeit unspectacular year. This supports our view that the... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) All the main balances of the CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey fell back in January. Nonetheless, the survey’s past relationship with the official figures continues to point to solid retail sales... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
