UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s retail sales figures were always likely to be weak after the unusually bad weather at the start of the month. And with the bulk of the lost spending likely to be made up, the bad news shouldn... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Mar.) While the bigger-than-expected fall in inflation in March means that another hike in interest rates in May is now less clear cut, we nonetheless think that it remains more likely than not. 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb.) February’s labour market figures provide us with optimism that sustained rises in real wages are now in prospect and should seal the deal on another interest rate hike in May. 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Feb.) February’s activity data added to the evidence that the economy lost a little pace in Q1. But we don’t think that this will prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from raising interest rates again in... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) March’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided evidence that sales have recovered from the weak period at the start of the month, when snow deterred consumers from visiting the shops. Admittedly, some of... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Mar.) The latest Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the severe weather conditions in March held back the sector at the end of Q1. However, we don’t think that this will prevent the Monetary Policy... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI (Mar.) March’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing suggests that the recovery in the industrial sector lost a bit of steam in Q1. But it should still go some way to offsetting the weakness in high-street... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Q4 Quarterly National Accounts & Money and Credit Q4’s Quarterly National Accounts confirmed that growth in 2017 was broadly unchanged from 2016, and painted a more balanced growth picture for the final quarter. Meanwhile, the latest money and credit... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) March’s Gfk/NOP survey indicates that consumers were in good spirits at the end of the first quarter. And with real wages set to rise again in the coming quarters, there is scope for confidence and... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Mar.) The severe weather at the start of March saw the CBI Distributive Trades Survey balances take a turn for the worse. But with the economic drivers of consumer spending finally showing signs of... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Despite February’s bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales volumes, the big picture is that spending growth is still pretty sluggish. But with the real pay squeeze coming to an end, the outlook for... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Mar.) The easing in output expectations among manufacturers in the CBI’s Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the boost to manufacturing output from the pound’s depreciation has faded somewhat. But given... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) & Public Finances (Feb.) January’s labour market figures provided clearer signs of a revival in earnings growth, suggesting that it won’t be long before we start to see sustained rises in real pay. Meanwhile, government... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Feb.) The fall-back in CPI inflation in February from 3% in January to 2.7% confirms that we have now reached a turning point, but doesn’t significantly diminish the case for a near-term interest rate hike. 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Jan.) January’s output data was disappointing. That said, the manufacturing sector is still growing strongly by past standards, while the surveys continue to point to GDP growth holding broadly steady. 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Mar.) February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor tentatively suggests that spending growth is turning a bit of a corner. And with the worst of the pay squeeze having passed, the outlook for growth is looking up. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
