UK Data Response GDP Second Estimate (Q1) While today’s figures confirmed that the economy slowed sharply in Q1, we doubt that this will prevent the MPC from raising rates again in August. 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The strong rebound in retail sales in April provides encouragement that consumer spending growth has regained some pace after the weather-related weakness in Q1. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May.) The pick-up in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in May suggests that the recent weakness in retail sales is abating. And with real wages rising again, we are upbeat about the prospects for consumer... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The recent rise in oil prices did not stop CPI inflation from taking another step down in April. But we doubt that inflation’s fall significantly reduces the chance of an interest rate hike in the... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey suggests that the manufacturing sector has failed to regain momentum so far in Q2 after the poor start to the year. But with firms’ expectations for output ahead... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures have got the new fiscal year off to a good start and might give the Chancellor a bit more wiggle room to loosen the purse strings in the Autumn Budget. 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) March’s labour market figures provide us with optimism that sustained rises in real pay are in prospect and will place more pressure on the MPC to hike interest rates soon. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.) March’s activity figures did little to support suspicions that the overall economy grew a bit more quickly in the first quarter than the preliminary GDP figures suggest. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) While Easter timing effects dragged down sales growth in April, the underlying trend does not look particularly strong. Nonetheless, with employment growth still solid and real wages now on the rise... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) The slight pick-up in the services PMI in April will do a little to assuage fears that the economy has suffered a loss of underlying momentum and makes the chance of an interest rate hike next week... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Manuf. PMI (Apr.) & Money and Credit Statistics (Mar.) The latest Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Survey suggested that the sector struggled to re-gain much momentum at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s Money and Credit figures revealed a... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Preliminary Estimate (Q1) While weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q1 largely reflects the severe weather, and so should be transitory, it is probably the final nail in the coffin for an interest rate hike in May. However, a... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) April’s GfK/NOP survey suggested that consumers have become a little less optimistic at the start of Q2. But with real wages set to rise again in the coming quarters, there is scope for confidence and... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) The pick-up in the CBI Distributive Trades Survey in April suggests that March’s weakness was largely a reflection of the severe weather conditions. And with real wages now on the rise, the outlook... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr.) Despite coming in a touch below expectations, the headline total orders balance of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey points to the manufacturing sector sustaining its recent expansion. However, a... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) March’s public finances figures will come as welcome news to the Chancellor and further increases the scope for the Chancellor to ease back on austerity in the Autumn. 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
