UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation came as a bit of a nasty surprise, but it does not alter our view that inflation will be back at the 2% target by this time next year. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) Pay growth ended its recent soft patch in emphatic style in July, with underlying pay growth reaching its joint-highest pace since 2008. This suggests that competition for workers is finally starting... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected GDP figures for July suggest that the economy continued to shrug off Brexit-related uncertainty at the start of Q3. That gives us confidence in our forecast that the economy... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Aug.) The improvement in August’s Markit/CIPS report on services came as a bit of a relief after the recent run of poor data on the economy and suggested that the services sector is holding up better than... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The fall in the headline manufacturing PMI, from a downwardly-revised 53.8 in July to 52.8 in August, leaves the survey pointing to little improvement in the manufacturing sector’s fortunes. Indeed... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The latest GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers were in fairly good spirits in August. And while Brexit uncertainty may weigh more heavily on confidence in the coming months, a gradual... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July’s public finances figures leave borrowing on course to come in comfortably below the OBR’s forecast this year, suggesting that the Chancellor should have room to manoeuvre in the Autumn Budget. 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected increase in retail sales volumes in July suggests that some recovery in consumer spending growth is in the pipeline. 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) As expected, CPI inflation ticked up for the first time since November last year in July. But as much of the rise was due to higher energy prices – which we doubt will be sustained – inflation should... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) Today’s labour market figures showed that the recent surge in employment has petered out and that real wage growth remains subdued, casting doubt over the likely strength of any recovery in consumer... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q2) The GDP figures confirmed that the economy bounced back after the weak start to the year and will reassure the Monetary Policy Committee that it was right to raise interest rates last week. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jul.) Despite falling in July, the Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the economy made a reasonable start to Q3, sustaining the pace of growth reached in Q2 of about 0.4% q/q. 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Despite the slight fall in the headline balance of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI in July, the survey still points to an improvement in the sector’s fortunes. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) July’s Gfk/NOP survey showed that consumers became a little less optimistic at the start of the third quarter. But with real wages set to pick up pace in the coming months, there is scope for... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures showed that government borrowing is still on track to undershoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) 2018/19 forecast. As such, it seems likely that the... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The big quarterly rise in retail sales volumes in Q2 has provided yet more evidence that a consumer revival is now underway. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
