UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The rise in regular pay growth to a fresh post-crisis high and weak productivity growth suggests that we are right to think that rates will rise further than is priced into markets next year if a... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q3) The GDP figures confirmed that economic growth accelerated in Q3. But it seems unlikely that the economy will be able to keep up this pace with Brexit uncertainty hanging over it. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Nov.) The big drop in the Markit/CIPS services PMI suggests that GDP growth slowed sharply at the start of Q4, which could be a sign that Brexit uncertainty is increasingly weighing on activity. So long as... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in the manufacturing PMI to its lowest level since immediately after the EU referendum suggests that the sector will drag on growth in Q4 as Brexit uncertainty weighs on investment and export... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The weak tone of October’s GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence survey is not all that worrying, given that it appears to largely reflect seasonal factors. The bigger picture is that, so long as a Brexit deal... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) Given lower-than-expected borrowing in the first five months of the fiscal year to August, the OBR is likely to revise down its forecast for the deficit this year alongside the budget. But lower-than... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Although September’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, sales still rose strongly over Q3 as a whole. And with sustained rises in real pay now in prospect, this should pave the way for a... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in September takes the pressure off the Monetary Policy Committee to act before it knows the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) We think that the drop in employment in the three months to August is more likely to be a blip rather than the beginning of a sustained decline in jobs growth. What’s more, pay growth continued to... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Aug.) The strength of the latest data has led us to revise our forecast for growth in Q3 up from 0.5% to 0.6%, which would make it the strongest quarter since 2016. Nonetheless, annual GDP growth will... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Sep.) The drop back in September’s Markit/CIPS report on services was a little disappointing but a bit of a fall was expected after a large jump in August. The bigger picture is that growth in the services... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The rebound in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that the sector will no longer drag on growth in Q3. What’s more, the export orders balance recovered much of last month’s sharp fall... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Quarterly National Accounts (Q2) The GDP figures were pretty disappointing and with plenty of downside risks to the outlook, we doubt the Bank of England will be in any hurry to raise rates again soon. 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Sep.) Some of the drop in September’s GfK/NOP consumer confidence survey can be put down to worries over Brexit. But provided a deal is stuck, we do not think this marks the start of a lasting trend and... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) Borrowing was higher than expected in August, marking the end of a run of strong figures. Despite the rise in borrowing in August, it is still on track to come in below the Office for Budget... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Despite inflation ticking up in August, prolonging the squeeze on real incomes, retail sales volumes increased. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
