UK Data Response UK Trade (Dec.) & BRC Retail Sales (Jan.) The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Price Index (Jan) Halifax data for January confirmed that the housing market upturn was extended into 2010, but also indicated that it may be losing steam. Indeed, prices rose at their slowest rate since June... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jan.) January’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that the economic recovery is struggling to maintain even the meagre momentum it built up at the end of last year. 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jan.) January’s CIPS report on manufacturing offered hope that the industrial recovery is gathering momentum. But there are still major uncertainties over the outlook for the overall economy over the coming... 1st February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide house prices (January) The upward momentum in house prices evident at the end of last year was extended into January. Indeed, the Nationwide house price index rose at its fastest rate for four months. But with each rise... 29th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary GDP (Q4) The UK economy finally exited recession in Q4 last year, but at a snail’s pace. With households under pressure, credit in short supply and a fiscal squeeze looming, the path back to pre-recession... 26th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s modest rise in the official measure of retail sales was disappointing given the far more upbeat tone of the surveys and trading updates. Although the figures should not be taken as gospel... 22nd January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & CBI Industrial Trends (Dec./Jan.) December’s public finances figures will do little to ease the pressure for a major fiscal tightening after the general election. But at least the manufacturing sector finally seems to be benefiting... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Jan.) & Labour market (Nov./Dec.) The minutes of January’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the Committee is unlikely to change policy either way next month. Meanwhile, the mixed labour market data highlighted... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s consumer prices figures will clearly do nothing to ease the recent increase in inflation worries. But they should not throw the Monetary Policy Committee into a blind panic. 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s industrial production figures suggested that, while activity in the manufacturing sector has stabilised after the steep falls of the previous year or two, a return to strong and sustained... 13th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Nov.) & BRC Retail Sales (Dec.) The UK trade figures continued to disappoint in November, with the lower pound still having little visible positive effect. But at least consumers are still proving surprisingly happy to keep spending... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s producer prices figures revealed a further pick-up in cost pressures in the industrial sector. But this is unlikely to prevent consumer price inflation from falling back sharply later on... 8th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Price Index (Dec) The latest rise in house prices has not changed our view that a second leg in the house price correction still lies ahead. Admittedly, the timing of any renewed fall in prices is uncertain. But given... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read