UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s fall in UK industrial production, while possibly weather affected, has put a bit of a dent in hopes that the economic recovery might have picked up speed in the first quarter of the year. 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Jan.) & BRC Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s UK trade figures suggested that the much needed pick-up in the external sector is still not in evidence. While other data also underlining the vulnerability of the housing and consumer... 9th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Feb.) February’s UK producer prices figures have brought the first hints that cost pressures in the production sector may be starting to ease a bit. 5th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) The decline in the Halifax house price index is further evidence that the housing market recovery took a backward step at the turn of the year. It is possible that temporary factors mean that recent... 4th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Feb.) February’s CIPS/Markit report on services suggested that, after the weather and VAT-related setback seen at the start of the year, the recovery in the biggest part of the economy is back on track. 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Feb.) February’s CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing brought evidence that the industrial side of the economy is continuing to recover. But there are still major uncertainties over the outlook for the... 1st March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) Today’s Nationwide house price index suggests that the New Year slump in buyer enquiries and mortgage lending may have reflected, not only the snow and the end of the stamp duty holiday, but also... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP did little to alter the picture of a very fragile recovery in the UK economy. We still expect GDP growth of only about 1% in 2010. 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) It is still early days, but our prediction last month that April would be the high water mark for house price inflation appears to have been borne out. For now, house prices continue to rise, but... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Bus. Inv. (Q4) & CBI Distributive Trades (Feb.) The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 25th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s UK public finances figures suggested that this year’s budget deficit could exceed that of Greece and further underlined the need for more decisive action to improve the fiscal position when... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour Data (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that the pause in the Committee’s quantitative easing (QE) programme may be only temporary. If the recovery disappoints –... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices figures should provide some reassurance that, behind the special factors currently pushing inflation higher, underlying price pressures in the UK economy remain pretty... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (February) The distinctly dovish tone of the Bank of England’s February Inflation Report begs the question of why the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) did not implement a further extension of its quantitative... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s UK industrial production figures raised hopes that industry made a stronger contribution to GDP growth in Q4 than previously thought. But that does not alter the big picture of a very... 10th February 2010 · 1 min read